CHINA US Focus » Think Tank Resources

[RSIS] Getting from Here to There: Stitching Together Goods Agreements in the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) Agreement (April 17, 2012)

Deborah Elms — Tue, 17 Apr 2012 07:41:09 +0000

The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) talks are a good test case for examining what happens when sweeping, grand rhetoric meets political and economic realities. In these ongoing negotiations, officials began the talks in late 2009 and early 2010 with repeated pronouncements about the need to open markets “with no exceptions” to the other members. These statements applied particularly to trade in goods. This paper examines the extent to which negotiators were able to meet these aspirational goals after 11 rounds of meetings in two years. Although the Americans were most vocal in their insistence on the high quality nature of the proposed agreement in goods trade, it has been the demands of the United States that have most limited the liberalization actually present in the draft agreement. The lack of market access has been compounded by the approaches used by the Americans to negotiate over market opening in goods. The Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement might yet end up being a high-quality, 21st century agreement, but market access in goods will not be at the cutting edge, but rather, bringing up the rear.

Download the Full Article [PDF]

The S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies （RSIS）is a think-tank within the Nanyang Technological University，Singapore.

[CFR] Beyond the Volcker Rule: A Better Approach to Financial Reform (April 2012)

Benn Steil — Wed, 11 Apr 2012 02:27:37 +0000

An approach to bank regulatory reform that restricts the scope and incentives for bank balance-sheet expansion funded by short-term debt is essential to preventing another major financial crisis. Such regulation would have prevented the collapse of Bear Stearns in the United States or Northern Rock in the United Kingdom in 2008.

In curious contrast, a "Volcker rule"—a ban on proprietary trading by commercial banks—would have done nothing to mitigate the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. Yet implementing such a rule has become a domestic and international political miasma that is draining credibility from the postcrisis regulatory reform process in the United States. The effort should be abandoned. To make the U.S. banking sector more resilient and less dependent on taxpayer support, hard constraints on bank leverage should be implemented: banks should be prohibited from expanding their assets beyond a certain level without increasing shareholder common equity proportionately. To address the problem that banks find equity capital more expensive than debt, the massive incentives for debt financing in the tax code should be diluted, or preferably eliminated.

Download the Full Report [PDF]

The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) is an independent, nonpartisan membership organization, think tank, and publisher.

[GIGA] Is There a “Chinese School” of IR? (March 2012)

Nele Noesselt — Fri, 30 Mar 2012 06:26:51 +0000

Research on Chinese International Relations (IR) theory has produced a variety of discourses, including post‐positivist analyses, contributions by area specialists and China watchers, and articles by Chinese IR scholars. These strands, however, hardly overlap or communicate with each other. To close the gap between “the self‐reflection of the core”(“Western”IR) and “the periphery's revolt against [“Western”] IR” paradigms, it is necessary to view China (and other non‐“Western” regions) as more than simply a playground for theory testing. This paper thus goes beyond the meta-theoretical debate about the possibility of non-“Western” IR. It argues that even though the IR debates in China are heavily influenced by the trends of “Western” IR Studies, the claim regarding the establishment of a “Chinese school of IR” is not a hollow slogan. Indigenous frameworks are already under construction.

Download the Full Article [PDF]

The GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies, formerly the German Overseas Institute, is a Hamburg-based research institute focused on political, economic and social developments in Africa, Asia, Latin America, North Africa, and the Middle East.

[Brookings] Addressing U.S.-China Strategic Distrust (March 30, 2012)

Kenneth G. Lieberthal and Wang Jisi — Fri, 30 Mar 2012 03:46:03 +0000

Although both Beijing and Washington consider the U.S.-China relationship to be the most important in the world, distrust of each other’s long term intentions ("strategic distrust") has grown to a dangerous degree.

The coauthors of this path-breaking study—one of America's leading China specialists and one of China's leading America specialists—lay out both the underlying concerns each leadership harbors about the other side and the reasons for those concerns. Each coauthor has written the narrative of his government’s views without any changes made by the other coauthor. Their purpose is to enable both leaderships to better fathom how the other thinks. The coauthors have together written the follow-on analysis and recommendations designed to improve the potential for a long-term normal major power U.S.-China relationship, rather than the adversarial relationship that might otherwise develop.

Download the Full Report [PDF]

The Brookings Institution is a nonprofit public policy organization based in Washington, DC.

[Lowy Institute] Revolution at State: the spread of ediplomacy (March 27, 2012)

Fergus Hanson — Tue, 27 Mar 2012 07:47:43 +0000

This report is the first time the rapidly growing ediplomacy effort at the US State Department has been mapped. It reveals State now employs over 150 full-time ediplomacy personnel working in 25 different nodes at Headquarters. More than 900 people use ediplomacy at US missions abroad.

The report – the result of a four-month research project in Washington DC and extensive access to State – finds ediplomacy is being used in eight different areas, not just for public diplomacy, and suggests a conceptual framework for understanding this effort.

For other foreign ministries, there is some catching up to do.

Download the Full Report [PDF]

The Lowy Institute is an independent international policy think tank which is located in Australia.

[CFR] U.S. Education Reform and National Security (March 2012)

Joel I. Klein et al. — Sun, 25 Mar 2012 05:53:22 +0000

The United States' failure to educate its students leaves them unprepared to compete and threatens the country's ability to thrive in a global economy and maintain its leadership role, finds a new Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)–sponsored Independent Task Force report on U.S. Education Reform and National Security.

"Educational failure puts the United States' future economic prosperity, global position, and physical safety at risk," warns the Task Force, chaired by Joel I. Klein, former head of New York City public schools, and Condoleezza Rice, former U.S. secretary of state. The country "will not be able to keep pace—much less lead—globally unless it moves to fix the problems it has allowed to fester for too long," argues the Task Force.

The report notes that while the United States invests more in K-12 public education than many other developed countries, its students are ill prepared to compete with their global peers. According to the results of the 2009 Program for International Student Assessment (PISA), an international assessment that measures the performance of 15-year-olds in reading, mathematics, and science every three years, U.S. students rank fourteenth in reading, twenty-fifth in math, and seventeenth in science compared to students in other industrialized countries.

Though there are many successful individual schools and promising reform efforts, the national statistics on educational outcomes are disheartening:

More than 25 percent of students fail to graduate from high school in four years; for African-American and Hispanic students, this number is approaching 40 percent.
In civics, only a quarter of U.S. students are proficient or better on the National Assessment of Educational Progress.
Although the United States is a nation of immigrants, roughly eight in ten Americans speak only English and a decreasing number of schools are teaching foreign languages.
A recent report by ACT, the not-for-profit testing organization, found that only 22 percent of U.S. high school students met "college ready" standards in all of their core subjects; these figures are even lower for African-American and Hispanic students.
The College Board reported that even among college-bound seniors, only 43 percent met college-ready standards, meaning that more college students need to take remedial courses.

The lack of preparedness poses threats on five national security fronts: economic growth and competitiveness, physical safety, intellectual property, U.S. global awareness, and U.S. unity and cohesion, says the report. Too many young people are not employable in an increasingly high-skilled and global economy, and too many are not qualified to join the military because they are physically unfit, have criminal records, or have an inadequate level of education.

"Human capital will determine power in the current century, and the failure to produce that capital will undermine America's security," the report states. "Large, undereducated swaths of the population damage the ability of the United States to physically defend itself, protect its secure information, conduct diplomacy, and grow its economy."

The Task Force proposes three overarching policy recommendations:

Implement educational expectations and assessments in subjects vital to protecting national security. "With the support of the federal government and industry partners, states should expand the Common Core State Standards, ensuring that students are mastering the skills and knowledge necessary to safeguard the country's national security."
Make structural changes to provide students with good choices. "Enhanced choice and competition, in an environment of equitable resource allocation, will fuel the innovation necessary to transform results."
Launch a "national security readiness audit" to hold schools and policymakers accountable for results and to raise public awareness. "There should be a coordinated, national effort to assess whether students are learning the skills and knowledge necessary to safeguard America's future security and prosperity. The results should be publicized to engage the American people in addressing problems and building on successes."

The Task Force includes thirty-one prominent education experts, national security authorities, and corporate leaders who reached consensus on a set of contentious issues. The report also includes a number of additional and dissenting views by Task Force members. The Task Force is directed by Julia Levy, an entrepreneur and former director of communications for the New York City Department of Education.

The Task Force believes that its message and recommendations "can reshape education in the United States and put this country on track to be an educational, economic, military, and diplomatic global leader."

Download the Full Article [PDF]

The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) is an independent, nonpartisan membership organization, think tank, and publisher.

[Carnegie] Understanding China’s Rising Coal Imports (February, 2012)

Kevin Jianjun Tu and Sabine Johnson-Reiser — Tue, 28 Feb 2012 01:20:32 +0000

China is home to the world’s second largest proven coal reserves after the United States, and prior to 2009, China was a net coal exporter. Coal is a cornerstone of the Chinese economy, representing 77 percent of China’s primary energy production and fueling almost 80 percent of its electricity. Moreover, China is the world’s top coal consumer, accounting for nearly half of global consumption in 2010.

Over the past decade, China’s domestic coal output has more than doubled while its coal imports have increased by a factor of 60—the country’s dependence on other nations’ coal exports is growing. In 2009, the global coal market witnessed a dramatic realignment as China burst onto the scene, importing coal from as far away as Colombia and the United States. With 182 million tons (Mt) of coal sourced from overseas suppliers in 2011, China has overtaken Japan as the world’s top coal importer.Moreover, as the world’s top coal consumer, China’s imports could rise significantly again by 2015.

Given the enormous size of China’s domestic coal reserves, why is China moving to import coal from abroad instead of producing all its needs domestically? Might this phenomenon be as superfluous and foolhardy as carrying coals to Newcastle, England’s major exporter of coal in the fifteenth century? Newcastle, after all, had more coal than anywhere else.

Download the Full Article [PDF]

The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace is a private, nonprofit organization dedicated to advancing cooperation between nations and promoting active international engagement by the United States.

[Brookings] Cybersecurity and U.S.-China Relations (February 23, 2012)

Kenneth G. Lieberthal and Peter W. Singer — Thu, 23 Feb 2012 07:01:45 +0000

There is perhaps no relationship as significant to the future of world politics as that between the U.S. and China. No other two nations play such dominant roles in critical global issues from peace and security to finance, trade, and the environment. How these two powers manage their relationship will likely be a key determinant of not only their own political and economic futures, but also wider global stability and prosperity.

In the web of relationships that have built up between the U.S. and China, no issue has emerged of such importance, and generated such friction in so short a time span, as cybersecurity. Concerns over this domain have rapidly moved to the forefront of U.S.-China relations. While both senior policymakers and general publics are struggling to understand the cyber realm’s basic dynamics and implications, the issue of cybersecurity is looming ever larger in U.S.-China relations and is seriously affecting threat perceptions on both sides.

Given what is playing out, it is especially important that Washington and Beijing begin to build the bases for greater mutual understanding, cooperation, and development of common norms in how they deal with the many issues emerging in cybersecurity. The path will be a challenging one for both U.S. and Chinese experts and officials, but if these two nations are to set both the Internet domain and global order towards a more positive future, then facing the challenges of cybersecurity is an imperative today.

Download the Full Article [PDF]

The Brookings Institution is a nonprofit public policy organization based in Washington, DC.

[RSIS] The Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP) Negotiations: Overview and Prospects (February 21, 2012)

Deborah Elms and C.L. Lim — Tue, 21 Feb 2012 07:32:25 +0000

The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is a trade agreement currently under negotiation between nine countries in three continents, including Australia, Brunei, Chile, Malaysia, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, United States and Vietnam. In late 2011 three additional countries–Japan, Canada and Mexico–announced their intention to join as well. The TPP has always been called a "high quality, 21st century" agreement that covers a range of topics not always found in free trade agreements. This includes not just trade in goods, services and investment, but also intellectual property rights, government procurement, labor, environment, regulations, and small and medium enterprises. This paper traces the complex negotiations and evolution of the talks since the early 2000s to the present.

Download the Full Article [PDF]

The S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies （RSIS）is a think-tank within the Nanyang Technological University，Singapore.

[CFR] Fostering Greater Chinese Investment in the United States (February 2012)

David M. Marchick — Wed, 15 Feb 2012 01:23:20 +0000

China recently became the world's second-largest economy and has emerged as the world's largest exporter and second-largest destination for foreign direct investment (FDI). In the past two years, China alone has contributed 16 percent of global GDP growth. Yet despite its rapid economic rise, China lags in one important area: outbound foreign direct investment (OFDI). China's OFDI has grown rapidly, but it remains relatively low—lower even than that of Ireland and Singapore. Historically, the United States has garnered approximately 15 percent of total global OFDI flows, yet currently it receives only 2 percent of China's OFDI.

Download the Full Report [PDF]

The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) is an independent, nonpartisan membership organization, think tank, and publisher.