Tag Archives: Exchange Rate

Trade Facts: China’s Exchange Rate & U.S. Trade Deficit
We often hear that China “manipulates its currency” and harms the U.S. economy. Some say if we punish China as a manipulator or slap tariffs on Chinese goods it would reduce our trade deficit. But what does currency manipulation mean? More importantly, would tariffs on Chinese goods help our economy?
US dollar vs RMB
The Need for a Higher Valued Chinese Currency
An outflow of capital from China, and the trade deficit it has created for rich countries and especially the United States, has led to an enormous gap in demand. The key route to reducing the trade deficit is a lower value of the dollar, which would require China to decrease its foreign reserves. As negotiations work, this would mean the United States would have to make concessions in other areas of the bilateral relationship.
US dollar vs RMB
Will the Renminbi Devalue?
The Renminbi surprised the world markets by its unexpected devaluations first in August 2015 and then in January 2016. The author argues that the Renminbi is unlikely to devalue abruptly and significantly going forward, even though there may be small fluctuations in the Renminbi exchange rate.
Taking the Pulse of China’s Markets
Expectation management is key to the stability of the yuan, and the central bank should give priority to the offshore yuan market, because this is not only a highly free and liberalized market, but also an important venue where international speculators would try to attack or manipulate the exchange rate of the yuan.
US dollar vs RMB
An Urgent Need for a Macro-prudential System to Stabilize Exchange Rates
Systemic risks like a new round of global currency devaluation and capital outflow could threaten economic stability and growth. In the past two years, the spree of short-term speculative capital and the RMB arbitrage rose and accumulated a lot of risks. A new global monetary management mechanism and a more stable global exchange rate structure are urgently needed.
Misinterpreting Chinese Intervention in Financial Markets
The lens of government intervention in China has led foreign observers to misinterpret some of the most important developments this year in the foreign exchange market and the stock market.
Why Fuss over RMB Depreciation?
The shifting exchange rate reflects the strength of the dollar, not weakness of the RMB. The two nations and business communities should focus on identifying the complementary sectors and products of the two countries and seeking a sustainable pattern of stable growth based on mutual benefit.
New RMB Exchange Rate Reform Must Obtain International Credibility
A long-term stable RMB exchange rate with a two-way volatility is conducive to maintaining the financial asset price, to preventing a large-scale capital outflow, to controlling foreign-debt risk, to reducing the cost and burden of debt financing and to stabilizing economic growth anticipation.
Rise or Fall, Freer RMB Good for Global Economy
As China allows more market influence to determine the value of the RMB, the exchange rate will become more volatile. Allowing the market to determine the value of the yuan is precisely what the West has long sought, and it will serve global interests, whether China’s currency rises or falls.
China Sheds Its Dollar Fetters
Shrill forebodings of a return to ‘currency wars’ and irremediable U.S.-China trade quarrels are overblown – although the prognosis on this front is somewhat mixed. A small step backwards (the yuan devaluation on August 11th) might yet come to reflect the biggest leap forward in Asian economic, trade and financial regionalism in the years and decade ahead.
RMB Devaluation: It’s Not the Economy, Stupid!
The 1.8% devaluation of the yuan has started a debate in China-watching circles about whether or not the People’s Bank of China is trying to make the RMB more market-determined, or trying to make boost its exports. Most likely, Beijing is allowing the RMB to find its feet before the IMF review in November.
Will RMB Exchange Rate Continue to Depreciate In the Second Half of the Year?
Although the degree of depreciation could be determined by how the Chinese government weighs the advantages and disadvantages of RMB exchange-rate movement, market forces play a more important role, and investors must pay close attention to this.
stock market
What Next for China? Market Lessons to Build on
The tremendous volatility of China’s markets has led to direct and indirect government involvement, which is ultimately a short-term fix. Beijing must re-commit to the opening of its financial markets and to a deepening of capital market reforms.
The Short and Long of China’s Stock Market Crash
The government’s aggressive response in stabilizing “Uncle Xi’s bull market,” has highlighted the political nature and disconnect between the stock market and overall economic health. The government must decide whether to continue its efforts to open the capital account and liberalize the exchange rate.
Currency Enforcement Clauses Have No Place in the Global Trading System
Protectionist U.S. Congressmen are proposing a series of amendments that would enforce currency disciplines for China-U.S. cross-border trading. Rather than protecting import-sensitive sectors with that would penalize developing country producers, Congress and global policymakers would be better off updating the fraying architecture of the international monetary system.
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