Renewed talks between the U.S. and China have led to a flurry of speculation on what the near future holds, but perhaps no one is watching as closely as China’s neighbors who would prefer de-escalated tensions sooner than later, especially if it means avoiding crossfire between the two rivals.

The Biden administration recently wrapped up two important state visits with President Yoon Suk Yeol of South Korea and President Ferdinand Marcos of the Philippines. The meetings signify that Biden is on a trek to improve and affirm ties with key Indo-Pacific countries, but it must continue this trend if the U.S. wishes to remain relevant in the region.

Success or failure is closely linked to China’s ability to influence its own neighborhood, as America’s real purpose is the creation of a NATO-style regional alliance. For the U.S., much depends on whether it can accommodate the concerns of countries that don’t want to take sides.

The shift of the US policy from engaging China to containing China can be traced back to the Obama administration and his pivot to Asia strategy in 2009.

The U.S. and China’s growing rivalry was bound to affect global relationships on multiple levels. Already having established the AUKUS program, the U.S. is also pursuing an adjacent Japan-Philippine-U.S. alliance which will add another security barrier in the Pacific, a difficult fence to raise in a region where many countries rely heavily on China for trade.

The strategy is based on 20th century thinking in a 21st century environment. It will therefore inevitably run into problems. This design flaw is its Achilles heel: It has improper strategic goals, an imaginary competitor and an ineffective and misguided approach.

The European Deterrence Initiative resulted in the Russia-Ukraine conflict eight years after its creation. Will the PDI lead to a U.S.-China or Japan-China conflict — or any other conflict in the days to come? The situation should be watched closely with high vigilance.

The shift has been limited so far, so China need not overreact. It should closely monitor where NATO is heading, however. The best way to deal with it is to run its own affairs well and buttress its ability to rise above external shocks and challenges.

America shamelessly uses other countries to further its own agenda, disregarding their needs. It has split the world and kept it in a state of perennial conflict since World War II and is now invoking the nightmarish return of the Cold War.

Geopolitical tensions unleashed by the war in Ukraine continue to influence Sino-American relations and the reshaping of state relationships in Southeast Asia.