A hot debate is unfolding in the United States right now whether the U.S. should extend an invitation to China to participate in RIMPAC, the largest multilateral naval exercise in the world. China, for the first time, participated in RIMPAC in 2014. 2016 would mark the second time that China’s participates in this significant naval exercise.
The main argument against re-inviting China to RIMPAC is that Beijing should not be rewarded for its “bad behavior” in recent years, and, indeed, that China should be punished for its assertiveness – particularly in the South China Sea. This argument is based on the assumption that a non-invitation would impose real costs on China’s behavior and forcing it to stop its assertive actions. While this assumption might appear reasonable from the United States’ point of view, in reality, it is a flawed one for 3 reasons.
To start with, although RIMPAC is a prestigious event that will certainly benefit China, the exercise is not ultimately something that China needs to participate in. After all, it is only a naval exercise with the overarching purpose of displaying symbolic unity in the spirit of multilateral naval cooperation. Thus, by excluding China from RIMPAC 2016, the U.S. cannot really hurt China in a meaningful way (not to mention China’s behavior in the South China Sea). If the U.S. is serious about “punishing” China, then it should focus on more tangible targets, like stopping some of the trading or investment relationships with China. Then again such sanctions are always a double-edged sword as they can hurt both parties. In that sense, all the “punishing” China mentality is understandable from an emotional perspective, but such talks are not consistent with rational decision-making. Of course, it is possible that whoever talks about “punishing” China might be principally targeting America’s domestic audience, especially as the 2016 presidential election looms on the horizon.
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