China manifests a striking paradox. It is among the world’s most dynamic technological powers, producing breakthroughs in AI, electric vehicles, and advanced manufacturing at an accelerating pace, yet economic growth continues to slow. The reason is no mystery. As the government’s latest Five-Year Plan (2026-30) recognizes, China is experiencing a structural transition, not a cyclical slowdown. The old model is giving way to a new one, which has yet to take hold.

Every new restriction on trade between the United States and China is supposed to pull the two economies apart—or so we are told. But the global economy refuses to cooperate with the conventional wisdom. In fact, each round of tariffs, export controls, and investment screening has been accompanied by more of the investments that cement the Sino-American economic relationship. Until policymakers recognize this paradox, talk of “decoupling” will describe a world that does not exist.

As missiles, bombs, and drones fly across the Persian Gulf, the prospects of an even more devastating war in the Pacific are strengthening. De-escalation of the new cold war between the United States and China must now become the world’s top priority. To that end, it is essential to explode a powerful myth that makes war more likely: the idea that China has cheated its way to prosperity.

China’s export controls on rare earths have exposed Japan’s persistent dependence, prompting Tokyo to promote deep-sea mining as a path to self-sufficiency. However, the Minamitorishima project appears driven as much by political signaling as by industrial viability, given high costs, technological constraints, and China’s continued dominance in refining.

Advances in AI and robotics, highlighted by rapid progress in China, are driving a “Robot Revolution” that will reshape work, production, and global power. Countries that lead in developing humanoid robots are poised to gain major economic and strategic advantages.

China is strengthening Hong Kong as a global gold trading hub to expand its role in gold markets, reinforce Hong Kong’s financial position, and gradually increase renminbi usage in commodity transactions. The shift could contribute to a more multipolar gold market that coexists with established Western financial centers rather than displacing them.

While the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the Trump administration’s IEEPA tariffs, Washington has continued to pursue unilateral tariff policies through other legal mechanisms, creating ongoing uncertainty in global trade. China and the United States should therefore move beyond tariff confrontation and focus on stable, mutually beneficial cooperation in trade, investment, and emerging technologies.

China’s expanding visa‑free regime is no longer just a tourism measure; it is emerging as one of Beijing’s most agile tools of economic statecraft, deepening global connectivity at a time when many countries are turning inward.

2026 is the first year of the Fifteenth Five-Year (2026-2030) Plan for National Economic and Social Development of China. There is intense interest in the target rate of economic growth as well as the actual rate for 2026, given the continuing slump of the real estate sector in China, the apparent lack of sufficient domestic aggregate demand, and the many different challenging geo-political uncertainties. The official target rate will be announced at the “Twin Conferences (the National People’s Congress and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference)” in early March.

When Western politicians and business leaders discuss China’s manufacturing prowess, they typically invoke images of colossal steel mills flooding global markets, dark factories run by robots, and state-owned champions sustained by subsidies. This supports the view that tariffs and anti-subsidy measures can erode China’s industrial dominance. But while this logic may be comforting, it is wrong.