In February, armed conflict broke out again in Kokang, displacing 100,000 people from their homes. While most fled to relatively safe places in Shan State, or other neighboring states in Northern Myanmar, tens of thousands fled to China. In its hostilities with the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), the Myanmar military has relied more on air strikes than in the past. Myanmar fighter planes have sometimes also crossed over into Chinese airspace. For example, a fighter plane dropped bombs inside the Chinese border on March 13, killing five people and wounding eight. Faced with public outrage, China responded with tough rhetoric.
With large numbers of refugees crossing the border and citizens getting injured or killed, the conflict cannot be solved through usual diplomatic means. Chinese citizens are demanding that China adopt stronger measures in response, but China has yet to resort to a military solution. Its response has included the reinforcement of border controls, negotiations with the Myanmar government, and involvement in the seventh round of ceasefire negotiations. What should China do next? To answer this question, we need to carefully review the history and current state of affairs in Kokang.
The Root of the Conflict
Kokang self-administered zone in green, within Shan State in yellow. Image via Wikimedia Commons/ Certes
Kokang self-administered zone in green, within Shan State in yellow. Image via Wikimedia Commons/ Certes
Kokang, a 2,000 square kilometer territory near the Chinese border, has a population of around 150,000 people, 90 percent of whom are ethnic Chinese. Although those in Kokang account for only 7 percent of the ethnic Chinese population in Myanmar, they are unique among Chinese groups in the country, as they were defined as an ethnic minority by British India. The Kokang area is known for cross-border settlements of ethnic minorities, including Kokang Chinese, Kachin, Shan, Wa and Ta’ang, among others. Expectations of a high level of autonomy on the part of these ethnic groups date back to the signing of the Panglong Agreement in February of 1947. After the July 1947 assassination of General Aung San, who signed the agreement on the behalf of the Myanmar government, it was never actually implemented, thus becoming the root cause of the armed conflicts we witness today.
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