Oct 25, 2024

The longer the war drags on, the more variables there will be. Bearing this in mind, Volodymyr Zelenskyy may modify his tough stance against giving up land and seek more pragmatic ways to end the war, such as a truce conditional on NATO or European Union membership.

Oct 08, 2024

For the Ukrainian president to consummate his victory plan he must either wait for or create favorable external conditions. The plan is closely intertwined with the evolving dynamics of relations between China, the United States and Russia.

Aug 21, 2024

Ukraine’s advance into Russian territory may pose new risks, including escalation of the war and further complication of the peace process. The aim may be to create a “land-for-land” negotiation in the future, but this may not work. Peace cannot be achieved as long as one side believes it can win. It only happens when one of the warring parties is exhausted.

Jul 25, 2024

NATO formally took a hard stance against Russia at its Washington summit, dampening the initiative. But without a rational understanding of responsibility for the war, peace in Europe will remain elusive, and security issues may spill over into Asia.

Jul 09, 2024

Within the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, the need to transform into a constructive force for regional peace, stability, prosperity and development aligns with the need for development, now and in the future.

May 17, 2024

The international system seems unable to curb hegemonism and Cold War thinking, but China-Russia strategic coordination can mark a new path. As the two nations achieve win-win cooperation through the “five always” standard, the fundamental interests of the Chinese people will be served in the process.

May 08, 2024

American involvement in the Ukraine war is partly driven by moral imperatives, but the deeper reason is concern for its own future security. NATO’s reliance on Washington could increase as Russian power is drained, but it will be difficult to change the tactical balance on the battlefield.

Apr 19, 2024

If Donald Trump returns to the White House next year, it might represent a turnaround for Russia. Although President Vladimir Putin has said that Russia would prefer Joe Biden, he also cannot fail to see an opportunity in Trump to continue his quest to restore Russian dominance, starting with Ukraine.

Mar 22, 2024

As more relatively weak countries find themselves unable to stay out of the war, China must walk a careful path. It must avoid and mitigate risks, safeguard its national interests and put Ukraine on the road to peace at an early date. To this end, it needs a more flexible and pragmatic strategy.

Feb 20, 2024

Judging from the current international mood, neither an armistice nor peace talks will likely come about this year, and the war will continue to drag on between Russia and Ukraine. At some point, it will become politically untenable in the West and financially unsustainable in Russia.