Interlocking the G20 and the IMF, better coordinating the five major economies, and reducing dependence on the US dollar are all opportunities for the Hangzhou summit during China’s G20 presidency.
The manufacturing jobs that the U.S. lost in the preceding decades did not move on to China – they no longer exist. There is no way to bring back these jobs as machines can do them better, and cheaper, than any American worker. The solution to our present dilemma certainly isn’t a manufacturing revival, but it may be a 20-hour workweek.
Chinese leaders’ emphasis on the “supply-side reform” could indicate a premature shift away from the consumer-led model back to China’s comfort zone of a producer model that has long been more amenable to the industrial engineering of central planning.
China’s 13th Five-Year Plan, an economic and social blueprint, could give important insights to U.S. companies planning China business strategies, by providing industry specific plans, local designations for free trade zones, and new policies across the country.
China’s new Five-Year Plan emphasizes the quality of growth rather than speed as the country enters a period of ‘new normal’. Maintaining 6.5 percent of economic growth is a priority, but it is even more important to keep such a growth rate sustainable and to channel that growth toward improving the quality of life for the majority of Chinese citizens.
The Renminbi surprised the world markets by its unexpected devaluations first in August 2015 and then in January 2016. The author argues that the Renminbi is unlikely to devalue abruptly and significantly going forward, even though there may be small fluctuations in the Renminbi exchange rate.
Divergence and competition between the two major players has intensified as both economies and their business communities want to seize the initiative in developing a more profound and mutually beneficial economic relationship with ASEAN. But there is still room for win-win-win results in this tri-cornered interaction.
The years ahead offer parallel tracks for growth for both countries, and an “early harvest” for U.S. enterprises, if opportunities are seized in innovative new industries, such as China’s “Internet plus,” hybrid-engine automobiles, next-generation information and telecom technology, biotechnology, alternative energy, and an expanding service sector – especially in the healthcare sector.
In today’s world, events in China, both positive and negative, are affecting nearly every continent. China should grasp the future of Latin America by seriously considering a series of policy shifts that won’t alienate its intentions from cooperation with the U.S.
Despite slower growth and two parallel spirals weighing down the Chinese economy, its economic fundamentals are not that bad thanks to its high saving rate and relatively strong fiscal position. If the government can implement an appropriate policy mix and successfully promote creation and innovation, the economy can rebound and return to a slower but still inspiring growth path.
China’s stock market turmoil has caused pundits to conclude that China’s economy won’t face a soft landing. Yet the macroeconomic fundamentals of the Chinese economy continue to be auspicious.
The U.S.-led petrodollar era has eclipsed. It is being surpassed by a multipolar oil age. The current transitional era is permeated by fundamental change, opportunism and speculation.
China’s transition to a more innovative, consumer-driven economy is well underway. While volatility is likely to persist, smart use of state resources, together with sure-footed reforms and increased transparency in decision-making should help China achieve moderate yet sustainable long-term growth.
Expectation management is key to the stability of the yuan, and the central bank should give priority to the offshore yuan market, because this is not only a highly free and liberalized market, but also an important venue where international speculators would try to attack or manipulate the exchange rate of the yuan.
China now seeks to export its excess industrial capacity as a means to cope with its economic troubles. The problem is that China is trying to export its way out a local crisis caused in large part by a global glut of commodities. Whatever the case, we should expect Chinese foreign investment to continue to grow, spurring a commensurate rise in its political influence.