Japan seems developed and orderly, but that’s only its outward appearance. In truth, it is a vassal of the United States, which has adopted chaos as standard diplomatic theory. Now Japan wants to discharge radioactive water from the Fukushima nuclear accident into the sea. Who will say no?

China, Japan, and the U.S. have all swapped places as allies and adversaries of each other. Recent times have brought Japan and the U.S. closer together against a powerful Chinese presence in East Asia.

The Japanese Prime Minister’s surprise resignation may affect Japan’s handling of its two most important bilateral relations, Japan-China and Japan-US relations.

Japan’s decision to scrap an expensive land-based missile defense system coincides with an important rethink of its security strategy, in favor of offensive capabilities.

The Abe government welcomed and fostered the US rethink on its China policy, but the COVID-19 crisis, along with the 2020 presidential elections, have accelerated and deepened Washington’s China pushback. Where will Japan situate itself between these two powers?

The U.S.’ commitment to back Japan in a conflict should not be extended to Japan’s vague claim of the Senkaku Islands. The territorial dispute between Japan and China is far too precarious, and one in which the U.S. should avoid in order to prevent further conflict with Beijing.

Japan’s China policy has traditionally been reactive to a more assertive US grand strategy. Yet, in recent years Japan and the US have traded roles, as Abe advanced a China strategy that cajoled more active US support. However, Trump’s confrontational posture against China should worry Abe.

Together, Japan and the US can check China.

Improving China-Japan relations pave the way for improving China-US relations.

Following the opening salvos of U.S. tariffs on solar panels and washing machines, the Trump administration may now also push for a more muscular China policy, to the benefit of Japan’s dealing with China. Make no mistake: while Japan and China relations show signs of a minor détente in the making, this year will witness continued strategic rivalry and the fleshing out of opposing visions of regional, if not global, order.