Researcher, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
Aug 12, 2016
China’s economy did not get out of the difficulty of downward pressure and was mainly fueled by real estate and price increases in the first half of the year. If China’s central bank tightens its monetary policy to some extent, the real estate market may start a periodic adjustment to be more sustainable, but the growth picture will be less rosy for the second half of 2016.
Jun 03, 2016
Only by totally abandoning the current growth model, which relies on credit investment and the real estate industry, can China’s economy escape the dangers posed by the potentially risky debts on its commercial banks’ financial sheets that may exceed $1.3 trillion. The majority of bank loans have flown into the real estate market, which will become instantly volatile if and when housing prices begin to slide.
May 05, 2016
The downward pressure on GDP growth has eased a bit and the economy has rebounded somewhat, mainly because of government investment in infrastructure and the real estate speculation despite a lack of domestic residential demand. Therefore, the state of China’s economy remains a mixed picture.
Feb 25, 2016
Expectation management is key to the stability of the yuan, and the central bank should give priority to the offshore yuan market, because this is not only a highly free and liberalized market, but also an important venue where international speculators would try to attack or manipulate the exchange rate of the yuan.
Feb 02, 2016
There is no need to worry about the slide in China’s GDP growth and its turbulent financial markets, because the market economy has taken root across the country — a market of 1.4 billion consumers. Pressures from regional setbacks can be absorbed by the greater national economy, as long as the government pursues its transition from a real estate-driven economy.
Jan 27, 2016
Stabilizing the RMB exchange rate not only requires comprehensively striking back the short-selling speculation but, more importantly, reversing the expectation of RMB depreciation and well managing the expectation. Substituting a new exchange rate index for the old exchange rate index has not impressed the international market. The RMB exchange rate should be anchored to the USD exchange rate to build confidence.
Jan 05, 2016
If China’s economic growth is still under a big downward pressure and China’s central bank further imposes an easy monetary policy, the RMB will go through an increasing pressure of depreciation. Therefore, the inclusion of China’s currency in the SDR basket would be a double-edge sword.
Aug 14, 2015
Although the degree of depreciation could be determined by how the Chinese government weighs the advantages and disadvantages of RMB exchange-rate movement, market forces play a more important role, and investors must pay close attention to this.
Jul 14, 2015
Despite the recent unprecedented slump in the stock market, the Chinese government’s strategy in developing the equity market has not changed, and Beijing will continue to foster a healthy development of the stock market through market-oriented reform policies. That means the surging trend in the Chinese stock market will continue in the second half of the year.
Jun 25, 2015
SDR inclusion will mean an endorsement of the renminbi as an international reserve currency, and at the same time, the Chinese government will have the power and capacity to steer and manage the renminbi exchange rate.