The national development strategy advocates for a multipolar world and seeks to implement global initiatives on development, security, civilization and governance. It opposes hegemony, defends justice and promotes a world of lasting peace, prosperity, openness and sustainability.
Many people, including U.S. President Donald Trump, hail China’s ability to think long-term. Foreign policy experts count it as one of China’s great strengths, and the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-30) is a perfect example.
In today’s increasingly unstable world, China regularly makes five-year plans for its economy and society. The result is steady, forward-looking, clear policies, which show that China wants to bring stability and certainty to the world.
Strategic assessment for 2025-30
An accurate assessment of both internal and external situations is essential for sound decision-making. Recommendations for the 15th Five-Year Plan say that China will encounter “profound and intricate changes” in the development environment. These changes are marked by both strategic opportunities and risks, as well as by growing uncertainties and unforeseen factors.
First, China is presented with strategic opportunities. These stem from the country’s enhanced ability to actively shape the external environment based on historical development trends. The opportunities are not short-term windfalls that come by chance. As noted in the recommendations for the 15th Five-Year Plan, momentous changes of a magnitude not seen in a century are unfolding across the world at a faster pace. The global balance of power is undergoing profound shifts, and a new technological revolution and industrial transformation is surging ahead. There are many positive tailwinds for China, which can make proactive moves in the international arena and shape a favorable external environment.
At the same time, these strategic opportunities are endogenous, diverse, stable and sustainable. They are grounded in China’s strong internal advantages. The country’s economy is stable, resilient, promising and loaded with strengths. The long-term positive trend will continue. Its four major strengths—its socialist system with Chinese characteristics, its mega consumer market, its sophisticated industrial system and its massive talent pool—are the key drivers of development. These strengths will continue to expand in both breadth and depth over the next five years.
Second, China faces increasing risks and challenges, along with growing uncertainty. Recommendations for the 15th Five-Year Plan highlight the fact that the world is becoming more turbulent, with unilateralism, protectionism and power politics on the rise. This has led to severe strains on the global economic order, sluggish growth and more intense great-power competition. In short, the global political and economic landscape is undergoing rapid changes, accompanied by rising tensions and more complex international conflicts. Overt and covert pressures alike are increasing, making it crucial for China to effectively manage external risks.
Domestic challenges are equally significant, and the government needs to break through key bottlenecks in economic growth, technological advancement and social welfare to address existing weaknesses with a sense of urgency. Key issues include development imbalances and inadequacies, sluggish demand, the need to accelerate domestic economic circulation, transition from new growth drivers, lagging rural modernization, employment and income pressures, demographic shifts (such as an aging population) and other potential risks in critical areas. The risks and challenges ahead are complex and interconnected, with significant potential for disruption. The situation calls for serious attention and proactive measures.
China will set its own tempo
Confronted with profound and intricate changes in the development environment, the recommendations for the 15th Five-Year Plan underscore the necessity of maintaining strategic calm, bolstering confidence and actively adapting to change. It advocates facing significant challenges with courage, even in the most turbulent times, and tackling difficulties, preempting risks and meeting challenges with a spirit of historical initiative. This embodies China’s strategic direction, work ethos and strong resolve to forge ahead, as well as the confidence and wisdom to rise above the difficulties of change. As American diplomat Henry Kissinger once noted, China historically possesses great skill in handling international affairs. This spirit of initiative is precisely the confidence derived from such skills.
Recommendations for the 15th Five-Year Plan also provide an outline the strategic focus and direction for China’s national development over the next five years. They emphasize the need to “focus on managing our own affairs well,” to sustain the “two great miracles” of rapid economic development and long-term social stability and to open up new horizons for Chinese modernization. This means that China will pursue development at its own cadence, focusing on doing its own things well and striving to become both better and stronger. It will not waste energy engaging in power competition with other countries or try to challenge or unseat anyone. Currently, China’s economic strength, technological capabilities and overall national power underpin its ability to overcome external interference, seize the strategic initiative and continue to move forward at its own pace.
The 15th Five-Year Plan period is crucial for China as it solidifies its foundation and intensifies efforts to achieve basic socialist modernization. During this time, China will prioritize economic development, focusing on high-quality growth and using reform and innovation as key growth drivers. The goals include enhancing the quality and aggregate output of the economy, making significant progress in technological self-sufficiency and achieving major breakthroughs in high-quality production. Additionally, China aims to advance social civilization, improve people’s quality of life and build a beautiful and peaceful China.
Building on this foundation by 2035, as the 16th Five-Year Plan takes shape, China expects to see a substantial leap in its economic strength, technological capabilities, national defense, overall national power and global standing. It also aims to reach a per capita GDP level comparable to moderately developed countries, enhance the well-being of its people and achieve basic socialist modernization.
Growing closer to the world
China’s development has been shaped through its interaction with the world. Over the past decades, China’s progress has been driven by its policy of opening-up. In the next five years and beyond, high-standard opening-up will continue to drive China’s high-quality development.
While some countries are turning to protectionism and decoupling, China remains committed to sharing its opportunities and further opening up. From 2024 to 2028, China’s total merchandise and service trade imports and exports are expected to exceed $32 trillion and $5 trillion, respectively. Since December last year, it has applied a zero-tariff rate to 100 percent of products from the least developed countries with which it has diplomatic ties.
Looking ahead, China will align with international high-standard economic and trade rules, further expand market access in the service sector and broaden voluntary opening up. China will promote trade in innovative ways, enhance two-way investment cooperation, attract foreign investment and burnish the lure of investing in China. It will deepen partnerships with more than 150 countries and 30 international organizations to pursue high-quality cooperation in the Belt and Road Initiative, making it a global public good. Countries around the world are not only a community with shared interests but also a community with a shared future. While some are turning to isolationism and unilateralism, China will continue to promote the building of a community with a shared future for mankind as it works with the international community to address deficits in peace, development, security and governance.
The recommendations for the 15th Five-Year Plan say that China will advocate for a multipolar world and inclusive globalization. It will implement global initiatives on development, security, civilization and governance, oppose hegemony, defend fairness and justice and promote a world of lasting peace, universal security, common prosperity, openness, inclusiveness and sustainability. This will create more cooperation opportunities and a brighter future for human peace and development.
