Kim Jong Un’s secretive train journey from North Korea to Vietnam ultimately represents a win for China. Traversing the entire country, Kim had only to look out the window to realize that China is a viable alternative to the US when it comes to brokering political survival.

One of the biggest geopolitical shocks of Rodrigo Duterte’s presidency is the dramatic realignment in strategic relations among Southeast Asian claimant states, particularly between the Philippines and Vietnam. What looked like a promising alliance-in-the-making has suddenly turned into low-intensity bilateral tensions, with the two protagonists openly clashing over how to best deal with the China threat in the South China Sea.

In the South China Sea it is essential to avoid future confrontation, not only for bilateral relations but also for the stability in the region. It is also necessary to move both bilateral and regional conflict management process forward.