The unity of the Gulf states, their diversified partnerships and their degree of assertiveness — along with China’s deepened relationships in the region — may constrain U.S. dominance. Even so, China must devise policies to navigate the unexpected strategic challenges it might encounter.

While President-elect Donald Trump’s tariff threats are likely to dominate headlines in the near term, China’s industrial overcapacity remains a larger, core challenge for the global economy and trading system in the coming years. With recently implemented tariffs by advanced and emerging economies, and Chinese responses and macro stimulus, how this issue may evolve over the next few years is becoming clearer – with significant geopolitical implications.

A fundamental shift in how the international community approaches global governance is required. Through concerted action, nations can resist the pull of unilateralism and build a more inclusive and stable international order.

The Trump administration’s blame-driven approach to U.S.-China relations fueled mutual losses and entrenched scapegoating of China for U.S. domestic issues. Ultimately, subnational diplomacy and pragmatic collaboration are essential for rebuilding constructive ties.

A change in America’s political leadership will bring challenges, but China is not as vulnerable as some say. Aggressive U.S. policies could push China to diversify its investments and explore new markets, while projecting itself as a stable and predictable power.

Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 presidential election is worrisome. People-to-people exchanges between China and the United States faced many challenges during his first term, and the Republican Party Platform is not friendly to outsiders. There could be stormy weather ahead.

The country is capable of mitigating any ill effects should Trump return to the aggressive form of his first term. China may feel some pressure, but it has built a multilayered economic defense involving domestic demand, fiscal policies, high-tech innovation and international cooperation.

Europe may be entering a quasi-competitive phase with the United States — no longer occupying the center of U.S. foreign policy. Rather, it will have to face Trump’s tendency to de-prioritize allies, which will likely add fuel to Europe’s drive toward strategic autonomy.

No matter who wins on Nov. 5 — Kamala Harris or Donald Trump — the coming vote will impact the world. China and the United States have a shared responsibility to navigate the problems of climate, economic development and conflict, and constructive efforts on both sides will make all the difference. This essay explores some possible election outcomes that will affect China.

President Joe Biden recently hosted Quad leaders to celebrate their cooperation while raising concerns about rising tensions with China. Despite initiatives aimed at countering China's influence, India's growing assertiveness may lead it to distance itself from the Quad, creating uncertainties about the alliance's future amid shifting geopolitical dynamics.