In the near future, the supposed “multipolar” world has been deferred, giving way instead to “orbital bipolarity”—a system in which global politics and industry are pulled into competing gravitational fields centered on the United States and China. Multilateralism has become inert, and every other power now orbits these two anchors while maintaining the fiction of choice and autonomy.

The Indo-Pacific Economic Framework adopted by the United States last year has led to a shift in the way East Asian countries perceive their relations with the world’s two great powers. The notion of reliance on China for economics and on the U.S. for security has begun to tilt westward.