Last month’s elections in the United Kingdom and France captured worldwide attention. Repudiating the rise of radicalism, voters put their faith in the left. Britain’s Labour Party won its third-largest majority since World War II, and the New Popular Front in France won 180 seats to continue a left-wing resurgence.
The election results reflect voters’ desire for change in both countries, although their reasoning was not the same. In the UK, the Conservative Party had been in power for 14 years and oversaw Brexit, economic turmoil, social division, party scandals and infighting. The cost-of-living crisis continued to worsen, resulting in a decline of trust in the government. In France, President Emmanuel Macron and his government took fire for their pension reforms, handling of racial conflicts and response to the cost-of-living crisis. The strategy of the left to form a bloc also contributed to its victory. They were able to attract voters by campaigning for fairness and improved standards of living. Capitalizing on the rhetoric to save the republic from extremism, they were able to squeeze out a majority.
Despite their similar election outcomes, the UK and France face very different political landscapes. The large majority held by Labour in Britain ensured that the new prime minister, Keir Starmer, was able to quickly form his government, allowing him to carry out his manifesto more efficiently.
On the other hand, in France, no single party won a majority, so an alliance between the left bloc and the center will most likely form a cabinet. An issue of legitimacy has arisen as both sides take credit for blocking a radical right victory, leading to political crisis over the position of prime minister and other key cabinet positions. The likely outcome is a compromise, with moderate politicians or technocrats taking those positions. As for Macron’s reform policies, he is now likely to encounter more resistance from the left.
The changes in the UK, France and other European countries have ushered in a new era of politics that will have far-reaching impacts beyond the continent, reshaping its understanding and relationship with China.
It can be expected that relations with China may improve for both the UK and France. The election results show that the most significant current issues are domestic affairs and social divisions, which both governments will now have to prioritize. This means that foreign policy is unlikely to be at the forefront of their agendas as they seek to have more stable foreign relations that will not create new problems.
In the UK, Starmer’s new foreign policy posture of “progressive realism” still show the imprint of atlanticism, which tends to be less positive about China. He has also partially endorsed decoupling policies in an attempt to reduce dependency on China.
However, the influence of the previous hawkish Conservative government has been heavily reduced. Starmer has also declared that he would cooperate on collective action with China — issues such as climate change. Further, Labour’s manifesto promotes social equity, developing supply-side economics and improving public services such as healthcare and education. This is in line with China’s modernization concept of common prosperity, coordinated regional development, improved standards of living and promotion of sustainable development. These commonalities will hopefully encourage better understanding between the two countries.
As for France, Macron is still in office. Given that the New Popular Front has less expertise in China-France relations, French foreign policy will likely continue to rely on Macron’s high-level of diplomatic experience. This tends to indicate that China-France relations will continue as they are and hopefully improve.
The United Kingdom and France may be more willing now to seek improved relations with China. In the most recent election, both countries elected left-wing governments, reflecting the people’s desire for more inclusive economic policies and a more fair society. The key to curbing inflation and fixing the cost-of-living crisis will be to focus on development. Following this trend, both countries may work to expand their markets into China, especially in the service industry.
Similarly, they may work to attract Chinese investment and encourage further cooperation in fields such as EVs and finance. This would help lower unemployment rates and bolster declining industries, in keeping with election promises. Moreover, Starmer and Rachel Reeves, chancellor of the exchequer, along with other key Labour figures have promised to create a pro-business environment to restore investor confidence in the country.
France has similar plans to work with China, continuing development in aviation, agriculture, sustainability and nuclear energy.
It is without a doubt that the current geopolitical environment is not optimal, with the United States pushing decoupling policies and the China-Russia threat narrative. This has put a strain on China’s relations with Europe. So the political changes in the UK and France are unlikely to have a major effect on their relations with the Asian giant. However, as both countries have elected left-leaning governments, the UK and France may see improved relations with China as an opportunity to counter the right wing in the U.S. and the political spillover in their own countries.
