The race for president of the United States entered its final lap recently as the country celebrated Labor Day on Sept. 2. The campaign has undergone dramatic changes, accompanied by great uncertainty, ever since the first candidate debate on June 27 between incumbent President Joe Biden and Donald Trump. When Biden suddenly withdrew and was replaced by Vice President Kamala Harris at the top of the Democratic Party ticket, election politics plunged into uncharted waters.
Democrats quickly coalesced around Harris, and the dynamics of the race changed dramatically. Following Biden’s exit and his strong endorsement, Harris took over as the favorite. Sixteen days later, she announced her vice presidential running mate, which came as a big surprise, and they embarked on a tour of seven swing states. With overwhelming support from delegates, they accepted the nomination at the star-studded Democratic National Convention in Chicago. All these movements made historic headlines and built momentum.
Harris began overtaking Trump in many voter polls in early August. Meanwhile, unlike Biden, who saw winning Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin as the only path to victory, Harris successfully achieved competitiveness in at least four Southern states while continuing to compete for the Rust Belt states of the upper Midwest, opening up new paths for a possible Democratic victory.
It must be noted that compared with Biden — who many Democrats feared would lose the election after his disastrous debate with Trump — Harris has effectively mobilized voters, especially young people, minorities and women. She has found some effective campaign messages of her own. She has talked about “not going back” as she has assailed Trump as a convicted felon and failed businessman who has undermined American democracy. Such messages could be effective in mobilizing voters. At the same time, Trump has found Harris hard to attack without inducing a counter-mobilization.
A Democratic presidential candidate who became the nominee outside the normal primary process has changed the race and dealt a blow to the aggressive former president. The drama does illustrate one thing, however: Both candidates are weak, each having problems and shortcomings to overcome. Their key challenge will be to reach the relatively small pool of undecided voters who can swing the vote in a few decisive districts in a handful of states.
Objectively, Harris will from now on face the real test in the sprint to Election Day, after maintaining a slim but steady lead in key states for a month. The recent debate with Trump could be an important factor. Since Trump’s sentencing in his New York hush money and election interference case was moved until after the election, other contingencies at home and abroad — which could happen at any time — may come into play before November Any one of these factors could potentially change the status quo.
Actually, Harris cannot guarantee a victory even if she can retain her slight edge over Trump in various polls in key states ahead of the election day. She must widen her lead over Trump in swing states to win. If she only maintains her current status, the election will be a toss-up. For Trump, efforts must be made to reverse his decline to increase his odds of winning. We can also interpret the situation in this way: When the world is listening to Trump trotting back and forth, Harris’s signature laughter breaks in.
During this presidential election race, the Democrats are as they were in 2020. Back then, they swiftly congregated around Biden and pushed him to the nomination not because they favored him but because he was the best candidate available who could defeat Trump. This year, they abandoned Biden and turned toward Harris, also because she is the best — and arguably the only — option likely able to beat Trump.
Although the Democratic Party has come now to a point at which the main concern is simply winning, not governing, Harris provides a new hand, and the outcome is difficult to predict.
In the world of U.S. politics, the return of Trump could mean the country would change tracks. By contrast, a Harris victory may have a more limited impact on the country’s path forward, but it would probably precipitate further changes in the Democratic Party. In the future, identity politics will not just mean “politics” for the Democrats but brim with identity. In this way, the Democratic elite in the post-Harris era will have to be diverse, or non-white — with individual identity dominating policy. The Democratic Party will probably develop into an entirely non-white party. Such a peculiar evolution will continue reshaping the future of the U.S. bipartisan politics.
