Dan Steinbock, Founder, Difference Group
Dec 22, 2015
As China’s renminbi has been included in the IMF elite currencies and the Fed has started its rate hikes, conventional wisdom sees the RMB weakening and U.S. dollar strengthening as simple long-term trends. The realities are far more complex, however.
Dan Redford, President, Quantify China Associates
Jun 17, 2015
Historic gains in the Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share stock markets are causing some Western analysts to speculate that the growth is being driven by irrational behavior. There are both institutional and individual explanations for this over-confidence, which will need to monitored if the market contracts.
Xiao Lian, Research Fellow, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
Dec 01, 2014
The end of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Quantitative Easing (QE) monetary policy will affect U.S. growth predictions over the next two years, and may weaken the U.S. dollar. However, as Xiao Lian contends, this might not have an obvious impact on China, yet could result in new development opportunities – as well as new risks.
Ronald McKinnon, Professor, Stanford University
Apr 12, 2014
In late February, the gradual appreciation of the renminbi was interrupted by a 1% depreciation. The resulting international outcry obscured a troubling feature of China’s exchange-rate policy: the tendency for sporadic renminbi appreciation (even small movements) to trigger speculative inflows of “hot” money.
Michael Justin Lee, Lecturer, University of Maryland
Mar 04, 2014
Recent fluctuations in the Chinese yuan have given way to far-flung fears that the Chinese economy is faltering. However, Michael Justin Lee explains that the yuan’s fall against the U.S. Dollar was engineered by the People’s Bank of China and was necessary to reduce hot money the Chinese economy slows.