The Trump administration’s war against Iran is portrayed as a reckless and ill-timed failure that caused massive humanitarian damage, destabilized the region, and disrupted global trade while failing to achieve regime change. China is depicted as a cautious but increasingly credible actor calling for stability and open trade, highlighting shifting global dynamics as the conflict leaves a volatile crisis marked by a fragile ceasefire, blocked oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, and a high risk of renewed conflict.

China manifests a striking paradox. It is among the world’s most dynamic technological powers, producing breakthroughs in AI, electric vehicles, and advanced manufacturing at an accelerating pace, yet economic growth continues to slow. The reason is no mystery. As the government’s latest Five-Year Plan (2026-30) recognizes, China is experiencing a structural transition, not a cyclical slowdown. The old model is giving way to a new one, which has yet to take hold.

As missiles, bombs, and drones fly across the Persian Gulf, the prospects of an even more devastating war in the Pacific are strengthening. De-escalation of the new cold war between the United States and China must now become the world’s top priority. To that end, it is essential to explode a powerful myth that makes war more likely: the idea that China has cheated its way to prosperity.

China is strengthening Hong Kong as a global gold trading hub to expand its role in gold markets, reinforce Hong Kong’s financial position, and gradually increase renminbi usage in commodity transactions. The shift could contribute to a more multipolar gold market that coexists with established Western financial centers rather than displacing them.

The chaotic conditions created by the U.S./Israeli war against Iran are now in an escalatory phase. The reverberations will be severe worldwide.

China’s creation and evolution of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank illustrates a strategy of shaping, rather than overturning, the global financial order by working within multilateral norms while highlighting the limits of existing development institutions. The AIIB’s growth, governance practices, and partnerships show how China is advancing influence through institutional participation and reform by example, underscoring both the opportunities for engagement and the risks of exclusion for the United States in an increasingly multipolar financial system.

The Turnberry System is a way to replace the WTO-based postwar multilateral trading system with bilateral agreements. It marks a significant turning point in global trade rules and will profoundly impact the global trade landscape.

Another great transformation is underway in China. The world’s factory is fast becoming its first electro-state, with an economy increasingly built on clean energy, AI, advanced manufacturing, and control of key strategic materials. This new model is full of promise, though it faces major challenges.

A world order without the United States has been discussed widely. One example relates to reform of the World Trade Organization, whose dispute settlement mechanism has been paralyzed by the U.S. since 2019. Now there could be a solution.

The impact on the global economic and trade landscape is unmistakable. These tariffs will establish trade frictions a a new normal and drive global supply chains toward some form of decoupling. They may also provoke countermeasures from other economies, especially given the constrained role of the WTO.