James H. Nolt
Adjunct Professor at New York University
Mar 08 , 2019
Much of Trump’s wish list is pie-in-the-sky. If there is any paper agreement much beyond what China offered last May, it will consist largely of empty promises that China will be unable or unwilling to keep.
Nov 07 , 2018
Xi and Trump’s positions remain so far apart that the prospects of a breakthrough are dim.
Sep 26 , 2018
James Nolt argues that what Trump seeks from China in the trade war is managed trade, not free trade. Unfortunately for China, the model of a “managed trade” solution crafted during the 1980s between the U.S. and Japan is not an option.
Aug 02 , 2018
China seems determined to avoid a serious financial crisis, but as a result, credit continues to expand at an unsustainable rate. A reckoning must eventually come, argues James Nolt.
Jul 12 , 2018
Trump's protectionism is destined to endure because there is no compromise solution, James Nolt argues. Trump's idea of the problem is too far removed from reality to allow his tariff pressure to succeed.
Jun 21 , 2018
As the U.S. and China exchange their first barrage of tariffs, it's worth examining the flawed logic that led the U.S. to begin this trade war. The reality is that the U.S. is not the paragon of a free market economy it presents itself as, and China is not as exploitative in trade as the Trump administration would suggest.
Jun 06 , 2018
Although many interests in the U.S., China and around the world will be damaged if the world’s two largest economies engage in a trade war, it is likely that Trump would have to back down first, increasing China’s global power and influence.
May 16 , 2018
We are currently headed into an unprecedented crisis in the world trading system that is not simply rooted in bad laws, weak institutions, reckless leaders or rogue nations; it is rooted in wrongheaded theories. The looming U.S.-China trade war is one of the real consequences of this.
Apr 19 , 2018
Those who take Trump more literally on trade issues warn that he really does measure success by rebalancing trade in favor of significantly more U.S. exports and fewer imports. Most trade experts would agree that none of the concessions China is likely to make in the near future would significantly erode China’s massive trade surplus with the United States.
Mar 21 , 2018
Recently China announced an 8.1% rise in military spending for its 2018 budget. This is the largest increase in several years, but it represents continuity rather than signaling any ominous portent.