The current U.S. policy toward Southeast Asia is generating a range of negative effects. If the United States fails to adjust its competitive, confrontational and self-serving foreign policy, its influence in the region is likely to face further decline.

Trump’s foreign policy setbacks, particularly with Iran, have complicated his diplomatic agenda and delayed a key summit with China, though both sides remain motivated by domestic and strategic incentives to pursue limited, pragmatic agreements. However, any cooperation will likely focus on narrow, short-term gains, as deep structural rivalry and mutual distrust continue to constrain meaningful long-term rapprochement.

The recently released 2025 NSS, shows the limits of decoupling. Defending core interests while designing layered mechanisms that preserve cooperation is the only rational way for the United States and China to avoid mutual destruction and global stagnation.

Neither China nor the U.S. can change the other. They can only choose peaceful coexistence, meet each other halfway, increase mutual trust and cooperation and pursue common prosperity. Bilateral ties for the foreseeable future will follow the pattern of “fighting but not breaking up.”

In the tense relationship between the United States and China, Hong Kong emerges as a middle space — a vantage point from which to imagine a way forward. The city’s unique position offers a metaphorical middle ground for dialogue, emphasising the need for new frameworks to navigate today’s complex rivalries.

In a few short years AI technology has already become a legitimate threat to the earth’s environment. Without guardrails put in place, the competition between the U.S. and China could outstrip current infrastructure.

Under China’s 15th Five-Year Plan, the coming period will be crucial for consolidating foundations and achieving socialist modernization. The country aims to leverage four key advantages: its institutional strengths, its vast domestic market, its complete industrial system and its abundant human resources.

China’s new rare-earth export controls have turned its dominance in the sector into a powerful strategic tool, extending restrictions to technology, equipment, and expertise that tighten global dependence. The move has intensified tensions with the United States and its allies, highlighting how control over critical minerals now defines the balance of economic and geopolitical power.

The U.S. and China are locked in a new “Battle for the Commanding Heights,” centered not on ideology but on control of critical technologies such as chips, AI, and robotics. While the United States retains major advantages, China’s hybrid model of state guidance and private entrepreneurship gives it powerful momentum, and America risks losing its edge if it underinvests or misreads the competition.

China’s industrial policy, including its “Delete America” initiative and major state investments, has secured dominance in legacy chips and reduced reliance on U.S. technology. While still dependent on American AI chips, Chinese firms like Huawei are quickly developing competitive alternatives, threatening U.S. chipmakers.