Senior Fellow, Yale University
May 31, 2014
The temptations of extrapolation are hard to resist. The trend exerts a powerful influence on markets, policymakers, households, and businesses. But discerning observers understand the limits of linear thinking, because they know that lines bend, or sometimes even break. That is the case today in assessing two key factors shaping the global economy: the risks associated with America’s policy gambit and the state of the Chinese economy.
Feb 28, 2014
Stephen Roach states that China's slowing GDP growth is a natural result of a rebalancing of the Chinese economy. However, China's recent economic growth has lead to an unbalanced codependency of China and the US. Thus, Roach believes that the US should adopt a new growth strategy, based on saving and investing in people, infrastructure, and capacity.
Jan 02, 2014
China was hardly lacking in policy pronouncements in the final months of 2013. But, seen in their entirety, the risk of incoherence has become evident, writes Stephen Roach.
Nov 27, 2013
Changes suggested by the Third Plenum could be useful for America’s ailing economy.
Oct 22, 2013
With 90 days left to bridge the ideological and partisan divide before another crisis erupts, the fuse on America’s debt bomb is getting shorter and shorter. As a dysfunctional US government peers into the abyss, China – America’s largest foreign creditor – has much at stake.
Aug 30, 2013
The global economy could be in the early stages of another crisis – and, once again, the Federal Reserve is in the eye of the storm. As the Fed attempts to exit from its unprecedented policy of massive purchases of long-term assets, many high-flying emerging economies suddenly find themselves in a vise.
Jun 28, 2013
The Federal Reserve and the People’s Bank of China are on the same path to policy normalization, but for very different reasons, writes Stephen Roach.
May 01, 2013
At 7.7%, China’s annual GDP growth in the first quarter of this year was slower than many expected. While the data were hardly devastating relative to a cons
Apr 03, 2013
The debate is over. After six years of weighing the options, China is now firmly committed to implementing a new growth strategy. At least, that’s the verdict I gleaned from the just-completed annual China Development Forum, long China’s most important dialogue with the outside world.
Jan 30, 2013
In a feat unmatched by other world powers, China’s economy survived its second soft landing in less than four years. However, as external factors continue to shock China, its economy has faced increasing vulnerability. Now, economic rebalancing and reform could hold the key to continued growth.