Faculty Member, Yale University
Mar 29 , 2016
Chinese leaders' emphasis on the "supply-side reform" could indicate a premature shift away from the consumer-led model back to China’s comfort zone of a producer model that has long been more amenable to the industrial engineering of central planning.
Jan 27 , 2016
The fears about the economic meltdown in China are overblown. The mismatch between progress in economic rebalancing and setbacks in financial reforms must ultimately be resolved as China transitions to new growth model. But it does not spell imminent crisis.
Aug 26 , 2015
Tectonic shifts are occurring in the economy, financial markets, geopolitical strategy, and social policy. The ultimate test may well lie in managing the exceedingly complex interplay among these developments. Is China’s leadership up to the task, or has it bitten off too much at once?
Jul 29 , 2015
Quantitative easing (QE) is utilized by U.S. and European banks to manipulate asset prices and provide stimulus to asset-dependent economies. China’s market manipulation is no less blatant, but is distinct in its aim to promote new markets.
May 12 , 2015
Financial engineering largely benefits the wealthiest class; monetary easing has failed to spur meaningful recovery in post-crisis economies, threatening to keep the global economy trapped in a continuous series of crises. As Chinese Premier Li Keqiang stressed, the answer is a commitment to structural reform – a strategic focus of China’s that, he noted, is not shared by others.
Feb 25 , 2015
The renminbi has appreciated sharply over the past several years, exports are sagging, and the risk of deflation is growing. Under these circumstances, many suggest that a reversal in Chinese currency policy to weaken the renminbi is the most logical course. That would be a serious mistake.
May 31 , 2014
The temptations of extrapolation are hard to resist. The trend exerts a powerful influence on markets, policymakers, households, and businesses. But discerning observers understand the limits of linear thinking, because they know that lines bend, or sometimes even break. That is the case today in assessing two key factors shaping the global economy: the risks associated with America’s policy gambit and the state of the Chinese economy.
Feb 28 , 2014
Stephen Roach states that China's slowing GDP growth is a natural result of a rebalancing of the Chinese economy. However, China's recent economic growth has lead to an unbalanced codependency of China and the US. Thus, Roach believes that the US should adopt a new growth strategy, based on saving and investing in people, infrastructure, and capacity.
Jan 02 , 2014
China was hardly lacking in policy pronouncements in the final months of 2013. But, seen in their entirety, the risk of incoherence has become evident, writes Stephen Roach.
Nov 27 , 2013
Changes suggested by the Third Plenum could be useful for America’s ailing economy.