Faculty Member, Yale University
Oct 27 , 2016
China is increasingly portrayed as the next disaster in a crisis-prone world. Stephen S. Roach disagrees, recognizing his minority opinion. Roach argues that without China, the world economy would already be in recession, citing the IMF’s October World Economic Outlook.
Sep 06 , 2016
Despite all the hand-wringing over the vaunted China slowdown, the Chinese economy remains the single largest contributor to world GDP growth. For a global economy limping along at stall speed – and most likely unable to withstand a significant shock without toppling into renewed recession – that contribution is all the more important.
Jul 29 , 2016
The lesson of Donald Trump and Brexit is that while elegant in theory, globalization suffers in practice. Those who worship at the altar of free trade – including me – must come to grips with this glaring disconnect.
Jun 01 , 2016
Republicans and Democrats alike have taken aim at both China and the Trans-Pacific Partnership, holding them up as the scourge of beleaguered American workers. America needs to save more and consume less, while China needs to save less and consume more. To succeed, both countries will have to overcome entrenched mindsets.
Mar 29 , 2016
Chinese leaders' emphasis on the "supply-side reform" could indicate a premature shift away from the consumer-led model back to China’s comfort zone of a producer model that has long been more amenable to the industrial engineering of central planning.
Jan 27 , 2016
The fears about the economic meltdown in China are overblown. The mismatch between progress in economic rebalancing and setbacks in financial reforms must ultimately be resolved as China transitions to new growth model. But it does not spell imminent crisis.
Aug 26 , 2015
Tectonic shifts are occurring in the economy, financial markets, geopolitical strategy, and social policy. The ultimate test may well lie in managing the exceedingly complex interplay among these developments. Is China’s leadership up to the task, or has it bitten off too much at once?
Jul 29 , 2015
Quantitative easing (QE) is utilized by U.S. and European banks to manipulate asset prices and provide stimulus to asset-dependent economies. China’s market manipulation is no less blatant, but is distinct in its aim to promote new markets.
May 12 , 2015
Financial engineering largely benefits the wealthiest class; monetary easing has failed to spur meaningful recovery in post-crisis economies, threatening to keep the global economy trapped in a continuous series of crises. As Chinese Premier Li Keqiang stressed, the answer is a commitment to structural reform – a strategic focus of China’s that, he noted, is not shared by others.
Feb 25 , 2015
The renminbi has appreciated sharply over the past several years, exports are sagging, and the risk of deflation is growing. Under these circumstances, many suggest that a reversal in Chinese currency policy to weaken the renminbi is the most logical course. That would be a serious mistake.