The recent initiative provides the possibility for RMB internationalization to grow deep roots, but that global outreach could be a “double-edged sword.” Exchange-rate fluctuations will mean greater exchange risks for enterprises, but the RMB cross-border settlements could also help enterprises to hedge exchange-rate risks.

China’s main goals are to give consideration to market supply and the exchange rates of basket currencies, to guide market expectations and to maintain a stable RMB exchange rate -- not to jump on the bandwagon of the “global currency war”. That bodes well for the inclusion of the RMB into the Special Drawing Rights currency basket of the IMF before the end of 2015.

The Chinese economy is simply too big to remain tied to the once useful monetary anchor of the renminbi–U.S. dollar peg. It is time to let it go. In the short term, it would help deliver a warranted Chinese monetary easing by helping to stabilise the effective exchange rate and to facilitate an orderly unwinding of the Chinese corporate carry trade.

The controversial issue of “currency manipulation” has resurfaced. However, Washington and Beijing have very different perceptions about the identity of the “currency manipulator.” The net effect is currency friction that is likely to prevail until the 2020s.

The renminbi has appreciated sharply over the past several years, exports are sagging, and the risk of deflation is growing. Under these circumstances, many suggest that a reversal in Chinese currency policy to weaken the renminbi is the most logical course. That would be a serious mistake.

European quantitative easing policy lead to the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate, but this depreciation is being carefully and intentionally observed by China’s central bank to observe the actual impact on the Chinese economy. A more flexible and internationalized RMB will be better to guard against depreciation.

China’s Central Bank is assessing changes in its international monetary policy in the following areas: RMB internationalization, becoming less dependent on U.S. Federal Reserve monetary adjustments, and containing the arbitrage of foreign speculative investment. With a major focus on the dispossession “outstanding funds for foreign investment,” the RMB is expected to experience moderate depreciation or fluctuation.

Since the start of the global financial crisis and the emergence of regional trade alliances in the global economy, “a currency swap network” has emerged in financial and monetary fields.

After the Renminbi depreciated for five consecutive months, the market has again seen signs of a pick-up. Some analysts believe the unusual change in RMB exchange rate means the RMB has stopped depreciating and begun returning onto the track of appreciation.

The RMB exchange rate should gradually reform with less government interference, writes Yi Xianrong.