Expectation management is key to the stability of the yuan, and the central bank should give priority to the offshore yuan market, because this is not only a highly free and liberalized market, but also an important venue where international speculators would try to attack or manipulate the exchange rate of the yuan.

Systemic risks like a new round of global currency devaluation and capital outflow could threaten economic stability and growth. In the past two years, the spree of short-term speculative capital and the RMB arbitrage rose and accumulated a lot of risks. A new global monetary management mechanism and a more stable global exchange rate structure are urgently needed.

Stabilizing the RMB exchange rate not only requires comprehensively striking back the short-selling speculation but, more importantly, reversing the expectation of RMB depreciation and well managing the expectation. Substituting a new exchange rate index for the old exchange rate index has not impressed the international market. The RMB exchange rate should be anchored to the USD exchange rate to build confidence.

If China’s economic growth is still under a big downward pressure and China’s central bank further imposes an easy monetary policy, the RMB will go through an increasing pressure of depreciation. Therefore, the inclusion of China’s currency in the SDR basket would be a double-edge sword.

The IMF’s decision to formally include the renminbi as one of five hard currencies in its SDR basket, and the half-decade or so of liberalizing reforms leading into it, is likely to be recorded by economic historians with the corresponding level of attention that is devoted to the establishment of the Federal Reserve System almost-exactly a century ago.

SDR status is only a fresh starting point for transforming China from a big financial entity into a strong financial powerhouse. By adding a currency from the developing world, the SDR much better reflects the functions of emerging economies in global economic and financial affairs.

As China’s renminbi has been included in the IMF elite currencies and the Fed has started its rate hikes, conventional wisdom sees the RMB weakening and U.S. dollar strengthening as simple long-term trends. The realities are far more complex, however.

The International Monetary Fund’s recent decision to add the Chinese renminbi to the basket of currencies that determine the value of its reserve asset, the Special Drawing Right, has captured headlines around the world. But the SDR itself has not exactly dominated discussions – much less transactions – since its creation in 1969. So does the decision really matter?

Now that the IMF has made the RMB its fifth reserve currency, new attention is being paid to the risks associated with cross-border capital flow. Managing these risks requires active participation in global governance and rules making, in particular global exchange rate reform, balance of payment adjustment regime, capital flow management and the reform and coordination of monetary and financial policies on a global scale.

The International Monetary Fund on Monday is adding the Chinese yuan to the basket of elite currencies comprising its lending reserve, marking a milestone in the country’s ascendancy as a global economic power.