Sep 30, 2026

My first in-depth interaction with Tung Chee Hwa came at a time of crisis. In April 2001, an American EP-3 spy plane had just collided with a Chinese military jet and was forced to make an emergency landing in Hainan Island. At the time, I was running a Morgan Stanley investment tour of China for about fifteen of the world’s most prominent and deep-pocketed investors, most of whom had never been to China before.

May 04, 2026

Rumor has it that last year, US President Donald Trump delayed his so-called Liberation Day tariff announcement by a day, to April 2, because he didn’t want his unconstitutional trade “emergency” to come across as an April Fools’ Day hoax. This year, Trump defied the calendar with an address to the nation on April 1, touting yet another unconstitutional act—a war with Iran conducted without congressional approval.

Jul 28, 2025

While no one has waved an official checkered flag in the Sino-American race for AI supremacy, the markets are betting that the United States will prevail. The chipmaker Nvidia recently became the world’s first $4 trillion company (and its CEO, Jensen Huang, has acquired global rock-star status). Microsoft, the biggest investor in OpenAI’s for-profit entity, is not far behind, with a valuation of $3.7 trillion.

Jun 04, 2025

There is an inherent flaw in US President Donald Trump’s trade policy. While it is all but impossible to know where Trump will settle on most issues – from taxes to immigration – two key objectives of his trade strategy are now coming into focus: setting a global minimum tariff, and imposing a special penalty on China. The flaw lies in the combination.

Apr 28, 2025

Nearly five years ago, I warned that stagflation was only a broken supply chain away. A temporary outbreak did indeed occur in the immediate aftermath of the COVID-19 shock, as a surge in inflation coincided with an anemic recovery in global demand. But, like the pandemic, that economic disruption quickly subsided. Today, a more worrisome form of stagflation is in the offing, threatening severe and lasting consequences for the global economy and world financial markets.

Mar 31, 2025

The world’s major growth engines are about to run in reverse. The policies and uncertainties of US President Donald Trump’s second administration have hit a sluggish global economy with a transformational exogenous shock. Risks are especially worrisome in both the United States and China, which have collectively accounted for a little more than 40% of cumulative global GDP growth since 2010.

Feb 13, 2025

It’s impossible to predict the outcome of a random experiment. Yet that is the task that awaits us as we try to make sense of another Donald Trump era.

Dec 24, 2024

China’s engineering prowess has been nothing short of extraordinary. From world-class infrastructure and eco-friendly cities to space systems and high-speed trains, China’s impressive accumulation of state-of-the-art physical capital has played a dominant role in driving its economy. But China’s physical engineering accomplishments on the supply side have not been transferable to social engineering efforts on the demand side, especially in stimulating consumer demand.

Dec 03, 2024

I saw nothing but denial in my recent post-US-election tour of Asia, with stops in Hong Kong, Shenzhen, Beijing, and Singapore. Taking a cue from surging global equity markets, Asians are making every effort to wish away problems at home and abroad.

Sep 30, 2024

Other than a few glib remarks, surprisingly little was said about China at this month’s US presidential debate. Former President Donald Trump asserted that his proposed import tariffs would punish “China and all of the countries that have been ripping us off for years.” Vice President Kamala Harris, for her part, disparaged China’s pandemic response, stating that President Xi Jinping “was responsible for lacking and not giving us transparency about the origins of COVID.”