Onassis Visiting Scholar, Tsinghua University
Aug 09 , 2018
The strategic perception that U.S. trade measures against China could provoke a Chinese debt crisis and thus coerce the CPC into early commercial capitulation is based on a grave miscalculation of Chinese economic fundamentals. This misjudgment could escalate and prolong an otherwise limited trade war with disastrous consequences for China-U.S. relations and the global economic order.
Jun 21 , 2018
America’s surprisingly healthy demographics and abundance in guns and butter cannot sustain its global preeminence if virulent politics of resentment undo its constitutional order. Competition between China and the United States will ultimately be shaped by a clash for domestic political excellence.
May 09 , 2018
While the transatlantic partnership remains a priority for Europe, this should not make the EU strategically biased against China. It should urge Europe to become a more autonomous strategic actor and to negotiate its global interests from a principled position of consolidated strength.
Mar 14 , 2018
Are trade wars easy to win and is Trump both willing and capable of escalating the conflict with Beijing to an all-out trade war, hoping that China will sooner or later capitulate?
Dec 27 , 2017
Despite, Trump’s claims, China is not a revisionist power. Diplomats on both sides should work hard to ensure Trump’s assertion will not become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Nov 16 , 2017
Yan Xuetong, the father of the “Tsinghua School of Thought,” explains how Politics has defined China’s historical trajectory.
May 04 , 2017
As the new U.S. administration has undercut its commitments to multilateral institutions and challenged free trade orthodoxy, China has upgraded its image as a pillar of globalization and doubled down on its Belt and Road Initiative. Amid the ongoing uncertainty for the future of globalization, it is thus possible to understand China’s BRI as part of a formative “Silk Road system,” an emerging economic substructure – “Sino-centric” yet symbiotic to the U.S.-shaped Bretton Woods.
Apr 03 , 2017
Could Trump like Richard Nixon “echo like thunder” by unilaterally announcing a high tariff regime to balance U.S. trade deficit and break the WTO system? While some of Trump’s advisors would wave their heads affirmatively, the institutional and commercial leverage of the U.S today is much inferior from Nixon’s America that bended Europeans to follow her unilateral demands.
Feb 13 , 2017
However histrionic the demagogic oratory of President Trump has been, his strategy to revitalize American manufacturing will be better served by exporting more to China, not decreasing Chinese imports. China’s gigantic market has thus become the golden apple of discord in an accelerating geo-economic competition between the United States and Germany, which already enjoys significant production networks within the Middle Kingdom. Yet unlike the days of the Boxer Revolution and the alliance of eight Western nations, China can this time choose her major commercial partners.
Dec 14 , 2016
Strategic surprise and a cultivated image of irrationality is a classical strategy in a game of brinkmanship. One side highlights its willingness to “dance too close” to the cliff’s edge and maximize risk, leading its opposition into eventual retreat. Trumps’ discussion with Tsai Ing-wen must be seen through the prism or feigned irrationality. Trump, a studious businessman, may have considered the strategies of past presidents and found the “Madman” hypothesis compelling for his ultimate goal: to leverage Chinese adamancy over core national interests like the Taiwan issue into an agreement over trade and jobs – his existential political pledge.