Trade protectionism won’t bring new opportunities to the US, because the global markets have become highly intertwined and interdependent, and the new president’s massive fiscal stimulus plan conflicts with contractionary monetary policy.

Donald Trump’s contentious telephone conversation with Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull caused worried reactions in the United States. Washington’s behavior will consist more of abrasive demands rather than requests and quiet diplomacy. Trump’s America First policy means giving highest priority to U.S. interests, not maintaining cordial alliance relations. That is a major change that Washington’s partners in East Asia and Europe will have to face.

The new president’s simplistic and arbitrary approach other countries is a double-edged sword that will bring a series of negative impacts on US foreign policies. While his China policy seems to be a work in progress, his sense of ‘two Chinas’ will pose a serious challenge to the diplomatic framework that has provided stability since the Nixon administration. Meanwhile, China should adhere to its own agenda and avoid being distracted by outside provocations.

As the three-power “triangle” re-adjusts, China’s first priority is to be confident in the diplomatic achievements it has made over the past few decades. Putin has recently pledged to “cherish the Russia-China relationship,” and the deep foundation of China-US relations that has been laid over recent years should be solid enough to survive short-term pressures.

No national interest is furthered by abandoning or conditioning this policy (One China Policy) on other issues. To do so would very likely end up increasing Taiwan’s vulnerabilities, destabilizing the Asia-Pacific region, and jeopardizing broad US interests.

Duterte, whom some have dubbed as the “Trump of the East”, made it clear that he feels a sense of personal affinity with the new American leader, whom he has described as a kindred spirit, a fellow strongman and anti-establishment populist. There are, of course, legitimate concerns about the possibility of things spiraling out of control if and when mercurial and larger-than-life figures like Duterte and Trump collide. For now, however, Manila is optimistic about a diplomatic reset with its oldest friend, America.

A spectre was haunting Davos, and its name was Donald Trump.

The full American tax reform is an enormous topic, but its impact at home is what matters, not whether the trade deficit barrows. Similarly, Beijing will respond forcefully to anything like a 35% across-the-board tariff aimed only at China. But in the case of the current BAT, China is best served by focusing on fixing its own house.

The new president plans to combine the power of his country and his personal unpredictability to produce fear and anxiety, which he believes will lead to U.S. benefits and gains. This tactic could win in some cases in the short run, but it’s almost doomed strategically. It will not make the U.S. great again.