During his time in office, President Trump will relax and possibly abolish sanctions against Russia and mend the relationship between the US and Russia considerably. But the sense that Russia is a major threat and strategic opponent of the US, which needs to be contained, enjoys bipartisan consensus and represents mainstream opinion in US society. Trump must develop relations with Russia slowly and can only go so far; otherwise, his position will become untenable.

While there are some variables in Trump diplomacy, variables do not necessarily equal uncertainties. Many of the forces affecting US diplomacy and global interactions are constant and predictable.

The new president showed that the United States would attach importance to the Asia-Pacific region, to its alliances and to deepening the relationship with the region’s major countries. His recent overtures to China, however, and his disinterest in Abe’s “values diplomacy” suggest that US policy will not always give Japan what it wants.

Trade protectionism won’t bring new opportunities to the US, because the global markets have become highly intertwined and interdependent, and the new president’s massive fiscal stimulus plan conflicts with contractionary monetary policy.

Donald Trump’s contentious telephone conversation with Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull caused worried reactions in the United States. Washington’s behavior will consist more of abrasive demands rather than requests and quiet diplomacy. Trump’s America First policy means giving highest priority to U.S. interests, not maintaining cordial alliance relations. That is a major change that Washington’s partners in East Asia and Europe will have to face.

The new president’s simplistic and arbitrary approach other countries is a double-edged sword that will bring a series of negative impacts on US foreign policies. While his China policy seems to be a work in progress, his sense of ‘two Chinas’ will pose a serious challenge to the diplomatic framework that has provided stability since the Nixon administration. Meanwhile, China should adhere to its own agenda and avoid being distracted by outside provocations.

As the three-power “triangle” re-adjusts, China’s first priority is to be confident in the diplomatic achievements it has made over the past few decades. Putin has recently pledged to “cherish the Russia-China relationship,” and the deep foundation of China-US relations that has been laid over recent years should be solid enough to survive short-term pressures.

No national interest is furthered by abandoning or conditioning this policy (One China Policy) on other issues. To do so would very likely end up increasing Taiwan’s vulnerabilities, destabilizing the Asia-Pacific region, and jeopardizing broad US interests.

Duterte, whom some have dubbed as the “Trump of the East”, made it clear that he feels a sense of personal affinity with the new American leader, whom he has described as a kindred spirit, a fellow strongman and anti-establishment populist. There are, of course, legitimate concerns about the possibility of things spiraling out of control if and when mercurial and larger-than-life figures like Duterte and Trump collide. For now, however, Manila is optimistic about a diplomatic reset with its oldest friend, America.