Heightened US-China tensions have raised the prospect of a deep global technology divide, potentially forcing other countries to choose which camp to join. There are plenty of grim scenarios involving irreconcilable splits between core technologies that power a wide range of products and services, from aircraft and automobiles to precision engineering for robotics and payment systems for e-commerce. Should these scenarios materialize, the world’s two largest economies will pour huge amounts of resources into a zero-sum race to control the cutting edge.

Trump's protectionism is destined to endure because there is no compromise solution, James Nolt argues. Trump's idea of the problem is too far removed from reality to allow his tariff pressure to succeed.

We are currently headed into an unprecedented crisis in the world trading system that is not simply rooted in bad laws, weak institutions, reckless leaders or rogue nations; it is rooted in wrongheaded theories. The looming U.S.-China trade war is one of the real consequences of this.

As RAND points out, government subsidization of aircraft manufacturers is a conflict between Boeing and Airbus that the U.S. and E.U. have yet to resolve. If they do not establish norms now, there will be little recourse against generous Chinese governmental support of its aerospace industry in the coming years.

Now that the White House seeks to turn China’s steel and aluminum overcapacity into a national security matter, America’s new protectionism risks international trade discord.