History shows that when necessary, Washington will sacrifice Taiwan’s interests in order to achieve US foreign policy goals. Today, Taiwan might find itself as collateral damage in the US-China trade war.

The candidates for Taiwan’s upcoming election represent two distinct competing ideologies concerning Taiwan’s autonomy under mainland China. The outcome of the election could change the course of history for China-U.S.-Taiwan relations.

The Solomon Islands recently broke diplomatic ties with Taiwan in favor of switching relations to China. This is only the most recent loss to Taiwan’s diplomatic community, as countries increasingly see the economic and strategic benefit of siding with China. Such shifts in the geopolitics of the Pacific region arouse great concern on the part of the United States, which fears the economic and military expansion of China. Given China’s extensive shipping and trade network in the region however, China’s interest in bolstering its defense capabilities should come as no surprise.

The announcement of the ban on solo mainland China tourists visiting Taiwan is a major escalation in cross-Strait relations. How has the mainland’s Taiwan policy changed, what was the reason for the suspension of visits, and what is the goal of such a strategic move?

The widespread protests in Hong Kong, which led to the defeat of a perceived pro-Beijing extradition bill, has only emboldened the pro-independence movement in Taiwan. With all sides hardening their respective positions, Taiwan is quickly turning into the front-line of Sino-American Cold War in the Indo-Pacific.

The United States is taking a huge risk by assuming China’s recent rhetorical and military aggression directed at Taiwan is just more of the same diplomatic gamesmanship. It is time to take seriously the PRC’s intentions to regain unity with Taiwan through force.

As Taiwan’s 2020 presidential election approaches, both the governing Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the opposition Kuomintang Party (KMT) face divisive, close-fought primary battles among multiple candidates. Growing political volatility in Taiwan poses a major threat to Washington’s cautious balancing between Taipei and Beijing.

Despite rising tension across the Taiwan Strait, Tsai has not rushed to seek independence, while the mainland has maintained its patient policy. Thus no crisis has yet emerged — still, Taiwan, mainland China, and the US should all strive to relax tension and resume peaceful cross-strait development to avoid a new cold war.

Trump’s Taiwan policy endangers peace and stability between the Taiwan Strait and risks causing catastrophe in China-US relations. Tsai Ing-wen should not mistake Trump’s policy as US support for Taiwanese independence and should see it as it is: a way to hedge against the mainland.