Continued friction may define US-China relations in the coming years. As such, balancing ties between the two major powers will constitute the greatest foreign policy test for successive Philippine administrations.

With big-power competition intensifying in the South China Sea region, the Philippines could be dragged into conflict. Reviewing the terms of the US-Philippine Mutual Defense Treaty can only provide minimal security for the entangled Philippines nation.

Since coming to power, President Xi has sought to charm estranged neighbors through an enticing package of infrastructure investments and development assistance, and the Philippines has emerged as the crowning jewel of this ‘peripheral diplomacy’ strategy.

China-Philippines relations have a bright future under Xi and Duterte.

President Xi visit caps two years of warming ties oriented towards dispute management, confidence-building, and expansion of economic, security and people-to-people connections.

Since Duterte took office, China and the Philippines are cooperating well.

China is cooperating well with other countries in the South China Sea.

As Duterte enters his third year in office, his South China Sea policy is facing concerted opposition at home, putting into question the sustainability of his rapprochement with China. The July 2016 arbitration award continues to resonate among the Philippine public and establishment.

Public backlash over reports of persistent harassment of Filipino fishermen visiting the Scarborough Shoal strain Duterte’s hopes for warmer relations with China.

China and the Philippines have deftly resolved disputes and are working together for development and win-win cooperation.