Competition for access to resources has been a major driver of conflict in the South China Sea. The discovery of offshore oil in the 1970s triggered a scramble for land features to bolster claims to territory and sovereign rights over underwater fossil fuels. Dwindling fishing stocks in coastal areas pushed fishers into distant waters, entangling them in jurisdictional disputes. However, the rise of renewable energy and modern aquaculture may reduce the role of resources as a trigger for tensions in the semi-enclosed sea. The increasing share of hydro, wind, and solar power in the national energy mixes of coastal states, along with their ambitious energy transition targets, may diminish foreign investors' appetite for capital-intensive deep-water hydrocarbon exploration and development projects, especially in maritime spaces with significant political and security risks. Aquaculture is also displacing wild catch as the main contributor to total fisheries production in most coastal countries. The integration of aquaculture and offshore green energy is in its early stages and presents opportunities for practical cooperation among coastal states.

China's sanctions on Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro threaten to disrupt a recent improvement in bilateral relations, casting uncertainty over diplomatic dialogue, security cooperation, and economic ties. While tensions in the South China Sea persist, sustained dialogue and more measured diplomacy remain essential to managing disputes and keeping open the possibility of future resolution.

A global energy crisis has created an opportunity for the Philippines and China to improve relations through increased diplomatic engagement, expanded economic cooperation, and renewed focus on energy security despite ongoing maritime disputes. China’s ability to supply fuel, invest in infrastructure, and support renewable energy development positions it as a key partner in strengthening the Philippines’ energy resilience and economic stability.

The resumption of diplomatic dialogue between the Philippines and China in Cebu on January 29, ahead of the ASEAN-China Senior Officials Meeting on the Code of Conduct negotiations, is a welcome development. Avoiding conflict and preventing the deterioration of bilateral relations are imperative for the Philippines and China. Cooperation and productive ties can persist amid differences. The practice of other South China Sea coastal states is illustrative. Several points are worth considering.

As the Philippines assume the ASEAN chairmanship in 2026, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is seeking to de-escalate tensions with China while deepening defense cooperation with the United States and other partners amid rising frictions in the South China Sea. The strategy reflects Manila’s effort to bolster deterrence without undermining ASEAN consensus or provoking broader regional instability.

ASEAN’s leadership has now been passed onto the Philippines during a time when traditional world powers like the U.S. and China are courting new relationships in rising regions.

The Philippines is strengthening defense ties with the United States at a time of escalating US-China rivalry. Manila aims to mitigate power asymmetry, while China’s response to its maritime neighbor reflects a deep distrust of alliances and wary of invaders which came by sea.

The Philippines is significantly upgrading defense ties with Australia and other Western partners amid growing tensions with China in the South China Sea, underscored by large joint exercises and plans for expanded troop access. Yet despite China’s overwhelming military advantage, both Manila and Beijing share responsibility to de-escalate tensions and pursue diplomatic solutions, especially as the Philippines prepares to chair ASEAN next year.

In his meetings with US President Donald Trump in Washington this week, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr., is navigating a challenging new reality: a place under America’s security umbrella no longer comes with a discount at the customs window. When it comes to trade, Trump throws allies and adversaries into the same basket. But Marcos thinks he can negotiate an agreement that preserves and even strengthens the US-Philippines trade relationship.

As Philippine President Marcos Jr. embarks on a crucial trip to Washington, uncertainties triggered by U.S. tariffs are unsettling global markets and the trade war with China is squeezing third countries, including many in ASEAN. Lowering tariffs, pursuing investment pledges, and boosting cooperation in sectors such as shipbuilding, semiconductors, and critical minerals are key to rebutting claims that the relation is more arms than butter.