The Philippines latest round of talks with the U.S. seems to give the impression of a strong shift toward alignment with American interests, but closer examination reveals a pragmatic approach by Ferdinand Marcos Jr. to playing the U.S. against overtures from neighboring China.

The Philippines, ever aware of its strategic importance in Asia’s waters, is making moves to strengthen its positions in economy and defense, the latter area being of utmost importance to Manila when looking at the flurry of activity Manila has taken in recent months.

The Philippines is at a crucial juncture right now, as the U.S. and China jockey for influence over the strategic waters surrounding the nation. Under new leadership favoring the West, the Philippines risks entangling itself in an escalating struggle between the two global powers.

Through a campaign to smear China, the Marcos government has managed to alienate itself from other countries in Southeast Asia. Working hand in glove with the United States, it will only find itself increasingly isolated from other ASEAN member states.

The polemics over a so-called “gentleman’s agreement” between the Philippines and China to manage a bitter row over the South China Sea may confound future diplomatic efforts to handle the spat. China sees Philippine commitment as fleeting,

The U.S., the Philippines, and Japan recently met in Washington for a trilateral summit, where they discussed security, diplomacy, economics, and more. At the meeting, Manila also exemplified a strategic alignment with Washington and Tokyo, particularly in countering China's assertiveness in the South China Sea and pursuing economic diversification away from Chinese dependency.

The Philippines under Duterte shifted toward a more neutral position between the U.S. and China, but now under the leadership of Marcos Jr, a more U.S. friendly approach has given rise to more flashpoint issues concerning the Philippines accommodations of U.S. military.

In a more perfect world, the Philippines proximity to China and relationship with the U.S. would be a net positive for the Southeast Asian power. Yet as things stand today, the situation leaves the Philippines walking a tightrope between the world’s preeminent superpowers.

Tensions are continuing to escalate in the South China Sea, specifically with the Second Thomas Shoal dispute between the Philippines and China. And in response to China's actions, the Philippines' are shifting towards stronger defense ties with the U.S., including potential joint patrols and resupply missions. If careful diplomacy is not employed, there could be a potential crisis and risk of armed clashes in the South China Sea.

The ongoing Second Thomas Shoal incident could trigger misjudgments and a wider conflict. Keeping the peace will require a comprehensive approach to crisis management, especially where foundational principles are involved.