The Biden administration recently wrapped up two important state visits with President Yoon Suk Yeol of South Korea and President Ferdinand Marcos of the Philippines. The meetings signify that Biden is on a trek to improve and affirm ties with key Indo-Pacific countries, but it must continue this trend if the U.S. wishes to remain relevant in the region.

The U.S. and the Philippines held their first 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue in Washington, D.C. in seven years, with the aim to strengthen strategic cooperation and mark a new era of partnership. Discussions included the ongoing Taiwan crisis and the Philippines' announcement of opening four additional bases to U.S. troops under the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA). Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has assured that these bases will not be used for offensive purposes in the event of a Sino-American conflict over Taiwan, despite concerns of dependence and geopolitical provocation.

Generally speaking, the relationship between China and Southeast Asian countries is positive, which adds a degree of certainty in an uncertain world. However, if President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. loses his way over the South China Sea and Taiwan, new uncertainty will come.

The United States has gained expanded military access in the Philippines, including the renewal of the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) and potential joint patrols in the South China Sea, which has raised concerns from some Filipino lawmakers and questions about the country's independent foreign policy. Additionally, there are worries about the speed and transparency of the expansion, as well as its impact on domestic politics and foreign relations with China and beyond.

As the Philippines shifts its foreign policy strategy, it has become a pivotal player in both the Indo-Pacific and the West. While India has diverged from its Western partners, the Philippines is moving in the opposite direction, not taking “sides” by building stronger relations with other countries and seeking a strong positioning and cooperation with key nations.

President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. of the Philippines described the challenge presented by the great power rivalry between the U.S. and China: “It keeps you up at night, keeps you up in the day, keeps you up most of the time. … It’s very dynamic, it’s constantly in flux, so you have to pay attention to it.”

Hosting Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. was the opening act for China’s diplomatic efforts this 2023. As the Lunar New Year dawns, it is worth reflecting on what the visit meant for both countries.

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s visit to China set the tone for stronger Philippine-China relations in the upcoming years. However, the future of this bilateral relationship might encounter tensions in the face of developments in the Philippine-U.S. relationship and defense cooperation.

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s visit to Beijing may help set the tone for cordial bilateral ties with China, but could also stir wariness on the part of the country’s longstanding treaty ally, the United States. The Philippines must carefully navigate its position to avoid being seen as favoring either side.

From student activist, to journalist, to a top diplomat, Jaime Florcruz is the man for the job. Given his unique and impressive history working and studying in China, and his expertise on America, it’s hard to imagine a better appointment for balancing the interests of both Manila and Beijing while not alienating Washington.