Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s visit to Beijing may help set the tone for cordial bilateral ties with China, but could also stir wariness on the part of the country’s longstanding treaty ally, the United States. The Philippines must carefully navigate its position to avoid being seen as favoring either side.

From student activist, to journalist, to a top diplomat, Jaime Florcruz is the man for the job. Given his unique and impressive history working and studying in China, and his expertise on America, it’s hard to imagine a better appointment for balancing the interests of both Manila and Beijing while not alienating Washington.

The Phillipines geographic location has long made it a close trading partner to China, but a colonial history with the U.S. has left strong bonds with its century-old ally to this day. Now, as China and the U.S. talk themselves into more hostile territory, how the Philippines will navigate two of its most consequential relationships will be crucial to surviving any sort of escalation.

As a former U.S. colonial subject, the Philippines has retained close cultural and official ties to Washington. The new Philippine president, Ferdinand Marcos Jr., has shown that he intends to deviate from his predecessor’s distancing from the United States by rebuilding relations with the West while simultaneously drawing closer to Asian nations - including China.

Overshadowed by U.S.-Sino friction, the 2022 election will be about the future of the Philippines. Old economic elites hope to undermine leading candidates and create a series of U.S.-Philippine military faits accompli before the vote.

“The U.S. once held the Philippines as a colonial possession, but now finds itself having to win back the Southeast Asian nation’s good graces to counter a rising China.”

The U.S. has seemingly pulled out all the stops to advance its agenda in Southeast Asia, hoping to entice countries away from China. Yet, as members of China’s neighborhood, ASEAN members will find it hard to create distance between themselves and China, literally and figuratively.

The ever-outspoken Rodrigo Duterte has navigated a contentious and dynamic situation in Southeast Asia with his bombastic leadership, which has disrupted a nearly century-old relationship with the U.S. No longer satisfied with compliance to American security concerns, Duterte may prove to be a formidable obstacle for Biden’s designs on establishing power in the Pacific.

As a former U.S. colony, the Philippines has maintained close ties with the United States on security issues for decades, and may quickly become a key player in Washington’s plans in the Indo-Pacific as China tests their claims across the South China Sea.

The rhetoric of the United States is designed to stoke fear and amp up tensions so that it can more easily form an alliance against China. Playing up the threat theory, however, only shows helplessness as China exercises its maritime rights.