Overshadowed by U.S.-Sino friction, the 2022 election will be about the future of the Philippines. Old economic elites hope to undermine leading candidates and create a series of U.S.-Philippine military faits accompli before the vote.

“The U.S. once held the Philippines as a colonial possession, but now finds itself having to win back the Southeast Asian nation’s good graces to counter a rising China.”

The U.S. has seemingly pulled out all the stops to advance its agenda in Southeast Asia, hoping to entice countries away from China. Yet, as members of China’s neighborhood, ASEAN members will find it hard to create distance between themselves and China, literally and figuratively.

The ever-outspoken Rodrigo Duterte has navigated a contentious and dynamic situation in Southeast Asia with his bombastic leadership, which has disrupted a nearly century-old relationship with the U.S. No longer satisfied with compliance to American security concerns, Duterte may prove to be a formidable obstacle for Biden’s designs on establishing power in the Pacific.

As a former U.S. colony, the Philippines has maintained close ties with the United States on security issues for decades, and may quickly become a key player in Washington’s plans in the Indo-Pacific as China tests their claims across the South China Sea.

The rhetoric of the United States is designed to stoke fear and amp up tensions so that it can more easily form an alliance against China. Playing up the threat theory, however, only shows helplessness as China exercises its maritime rights.

Over the last four years, the Philippines has proven to be the U.S.’s most cooperative partner in Asia, embodied by famously warm relations between Presidents Donald Trump and Rodrigo Duterte. The Philippines’ close proximity to China and it’s disputed waters makes it an important military ally to the U.S, and with a new President stepping into the White House, Biden and Duterte will have to establish a new diplomatic relationship between the two countries.

Duterte’s decision to cut ties with the US exposes the Philippines to many geopolitical threats and represents a strategic victory for Beijing in the region.

On Feb. 12, the government of the Philippines issued a notice to the United States embassy to terminate the Visiting Forces Agreement, or VFA. Under the agreeme

Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte has sent mixed signals about how he will pursue his country’s South China Sea arbitration award against China in 2016, and his recent rhetoric promising to take a tougher stance on China may not come to fruition.