The Philippines is often portrayed as an American ally on the verge of defecting to Eastern powers, with Duterte firmly overseeing this strategic shift. Yet, a closer look reveals that the tough-talking Filipino leader doesn’t have the requisite power to unilaterally reshape his country’s foreign policy, nor is he interested in fully severing ties with the Philippines’ century-old ally, America.

Although many criticize Philippine President Duterte’s apparent flip-flopping and unpredictable foreign policy, a careful look will reveal several emerging consistencies in evolving Philippine diplomacy, notably expanding economic ties with China, downplaying security ties with U.S., and managing regional disputes. Furthermore, given evolving regional and global dynamics, President Duterte’s foreign policy ambiguity reflects regional state practice and may actually benefit the Philippines.

Could the arbitration award of 12 July 2016 have unexpectedly opened a cycle of appeasement between China and South-East Asian countries in the South China Sea? It is difficult to conclusively answer this question, since behind these changes are uncertainties and continuities likely to undermine at any moment the progress made.

Like the confidence-building measures that have maintained peace and stability along the disputed China-India border, a code of conduct agreement with ASEAN will smooth relations and invite new cooperation — without regard to the Philippines’ improper and unilateral appeal for outside arbitration.

As long-needed economic reforms are taking off in the Philippines, regime change plans have been prepared in the U.S. State Department against a democratically-elected president who enjoys very high popular support.

Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte has been raising hackles across the Asia-Pacific since his inauguration in June. In his latest broadside directed at the United States, Duterte once again asserted that he wanted all foreign troops out of the Philippines and that he would eventually nix the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA). Although such a move does not appear to be imminent, it is worth considering its potential implications for the region.

Under Duterte’s administration, the Philippines are moving toward major policy shifts, particularly in regards to U.S. and China relations. China is an emerging outbound investor with a demonstrated financial, technological, and engineering capacity to accomplish major infrastructure projects, such as railways, which can have a transformative impact on Philippine economic development. The U.S. has become a quieter ally in the region, and other regional states have long been diversifying both their economic and security partners to spread risk and to avoid getting entangled in big power tussles. Duterte is following these initiatives now, as well.

What we are witnessing isn’t necessarily a ‘Duterte wave’ of defections to China at the expense of America. More likely, it is a temporary recalibration on the part certain Southeast Asian states that are unsure of American commitment to the region and eager to avoid direct confrontation with China, which in turn is offering large-scale investment and trade deals in exchange for strategic acquiescence. China is offering lucrative packages of technical skills and soft loans for turbo-charged infrastructure projects. But, it remains to be seen how far this rebalancing will go, as other nations in the region shift away from China.

The “Duterte phenomenon” must have prompted much reflection in Washington, and so it should in Tokyo. It may serve Japan better to think twice about the merits of its subordinate relationship with the US.

Rommel Banlaoi argues that President Duterte’s controversial remarks about the U.S.-Philippine relationship are not a signal of distancing, but rather it is an effort of strategic ambiguity on the part of Duterte. Duterte is creating a relationship with China and the U.S. that will best move forward his domestic policy, a key concern for Duterte; however, strategic ambiguity is a difficult strategy for Duterte, the two super powers, and the international community.