Tectonic shifts are occurring in the economy, financial markets, geopolitical strategy, and social policy. The ultimate test may well lie in managing the exceedingly complex interplay among these developments. Is China’s leadership up to the task, or has it bitten off too much at once?

As the Fed is paving way for the first rate hike in a decade, the world economy prepares for the greatest shift of capital flows in five years. Recent market turmoil in the U.S. and China heralds the transition.

Although One Belt, One Road is hailed as one of the grandest flagship projects of Beijing, it may have a bumpy start in Central Asia. Corruption scandals may overshadow laudable development achievements, whilst the new Silk Road may emerge as the Golden Road for kleptocratic governments and rent-seeking elites.

The Chinese-backed Pacific Refinery, the largest project in Ecuador’s history, sheds light on Ecuador’s current trading relationships with the United States and China, and a region transforming with China’s loans and construction.

Shrill forebodings of a return to ‘currency wars’ and irremediable U.S.-China trade quarrels are overblown – although the prognosis on this front is somewhat mixed. A small step backwards (the yuan devaluation on August 11th) might yet come to reflect the biggest leap forward in Asian economic, trade and financial regionalism in the years and decade ahead.

The 1.8% devaluation of the yuan has started a debate in China-watching circles about whether or not the People’s Bank of China is trying to make the RMB more market-determined, or trying to make boost its exports. Most likely, Beijing is allowing the RMB to find its feet before the IMF review in November.

Although the degree of depreciation could be determined by how the Chinese government weighs the advantages and disadvantages of RMB exchange-rate movement, market forces play a more important role, and investors must pay close attention to this.

Far from competing with US interests, the two meetings offer blueprints for more and better cooperation with Washington in a new world order.

Washington’s goals in the Trans-Pacific Partnership may have been economic at first, but the most recent negotiations suggest the trade agreement has become a tool of the US ‘pivot to Asia’. A symptom of its quest to contain China, it’s an unworthy goal for the US – and it’s doomed to fail.

The tremendous volatility of China’s markets has led to direct and indirect government involvement, which is ultimately a short-term fix. Beijing must re-commit to the opening of its financial markets and to a deepening of capital market reforms.