Given the latest conflict and humanitarian crisis in the middle east, and the risk of the conflict expanding to involve other state actors throughout the region, Nathaniel Schochet and Earl Carr explore the possible opportunities, persistent limitations and the core geostrategic objectives of China’s mediation role in the 2023 Israel-Hamas War and elsewhere.

Despite massive aid, U.S. policies have failed to achieve peace in Israel, West Bank and Gaza, thus eroding U.S. credibility in the region. Why did U.S. policies fail? Could Chinese policies contribute to peace?

Expectations should be kept within reasonable bounds. While China facilitated the diplomatic process between Iran and Saudi Arabia, the momentum fundamentally came from within the region. The successful mediation shows that China correctly understood the aspirations of the region.

The Butterfly Effect has taken flight. China’s diplomatic accomplishment in reconciling Saudi Arabia and Iran could have far-reaching consequences, with Ukraine’s future caught in its wake. The unexpected nature of this historic move means that its ramifications are rapidly gaining momentum and could unleash a tidal wave of global proportions, particularly in Europe.

China has maintained a minimal presence in the Middle East over the last few decades, but Beijing’s mediation between Iran and Saudi Arabia demonstrates that Beijing is staking out a new, positive role in the region.

As U.S. influence recedes, China’s role in the region can be expected to grow. It will push for peace, rather than dominate decision-making. China respects the people and will encourage them to be their own masters.

President Xi Jinping’s recent visit to Saudi Arabia seeks to disrupt the U.S.’ influence in the region and deepen relationships with one of the largest oil exporting countries in the world, with the signing of multiple agreements. Each move put more pressure on the U.S. to reevaluate its relationship with Saudi Arabia.

Third high-level meeting of Afghan officials, together with the foreign ministers of neighboring countries, reflected China’s strategic commitment to the greater Middle East region and charted a course that can lead to the end of chaos.

China attaches great importance to Middle Eastern countries, with their range of ethnic and religious backgrounds, but its policies are based on right and wrong. It will not sacrifice its long-held principles and values.

Iraq is an example of how recent instability in American-Middle Eastern relations has opened the door for China to expand its influence in the region via investment projects and an exploitation of local politics.