Former President, China Society of World Economics
Dec 09, 2020
China’s economy seems largely to have bounced back from the COVID-19 shock. It registered 4.9% annual growth in the third quarter of 2020, and the rate may well exceed 5% growth in the fourth quarter. The result would be at least 2% annual full-year growth – not bad at a time when much of the world is facing a pandemic-induced recession. But that doesn’t mean smooth sailing ahead.
Apr 27, 2020
As Graham Allison of Harvard University has warned, “when a rising power like Athens, or China, threatens to displace a ruling power like Sparta, which had been the dominant power in Greece for a hundred years, or the US, basically alarm bells should sound.” Nowadays, the alarm bells are sounding so loud that they are drowning out ideas that would allow the United States and China to escape what Allison called the “Thucydides Trap.”
Feb 18, 2020
The coronavirus outbreak that began in the Chinese city of Wuhan has spread across the country and beyond its borders, leaving governments at all levels in China scrambling to limit further person-to-person transmission of the virus, now known as COVID-19.
Nov 08, 2019
China’s GDP growth may still be strong by global standards, but the annualized rate of 6% in the third quarter of 2019 is the lowest the country has recorded since 1992. In fact, China’s GDP growth has been slowing steadily since the first quarter of 2010, when it exceeded 12%, year on year. This downward trend is riskier than many observers seem to realize.
Sep 12, 2019
In early August, the renminbi’s exchange rate broke through the psychological threshold of CN¥7 per US dollar. While investors were still digesting the full significance of this event, US President Donald Trump’s administration startled the market by labeling China a “currency manipulator.”
Jul 05, 2019
The path to ending the trade war remains far from clear.
Apr 30, 2019
After a disappointing performance in 2018, China’s economy appears to be stabilizing. In the first quarter of 2019, GDP growth, at 6.4% year-on-year, matched that of the previous quarter. But growth in industrial production exceeded expectations, expanding by 6.5% year on year (and by 8.5% in March). Even exports growth was positive, albeit weak, despite the ongoing trade war with the United States.
Mar 01, 2019
China must think twice before accepting the U.S. request to stabilize the renminmi.
Oct 31, 2018
Whatever costs the US incurs from trade with China are vastly outweighed by the benefits. If Trump wants to sacrifice those benefits in a trade war, so much the better for China.
Aug 30, 2018
While some observers are concerned by the fall of the Chinese currency, past experience offers a clear lesson: don’t panic.