The region’s future will be shaped less by formal claims of presence than by the practical capacity to operate and govern in a difficult environment. It is moving into a more operational phase in which capability will become the currency of influence.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has disrupted the governance of the northern region, posing a threat to economic cooperation and risking military escalation. Changes to the framework and their effect on Russia are worthy of close attention going forward.

An act recently introduced in Congress sets the tone for the Biden administration as it unilaterally attempts to cement the role of the United States as arbiter of security matters in the Arctic region. But China must safeguard its own interests.

America has been grossly interfering with economic cooperation in the region, attempting to reinforce a false perception that Beijing poses a threat.

The move prompted Arctic countries to make common cause against big-power interference and chart their own way forward.

President Trump’s interest in Greenland is sensible considering the strategic and economic importance of the Arctic — a region that also interests China, Russia, and other great powers, but the United States could be doing more to strengthen its ties to Denmark and its territory.

America’s top diplomat, Mike Pompeo, recently attacked China’s Arctic activities. But this criticism lacks coherence and a basis in international law — China’s proposed “Polar Silk Road,” among other projects including infrastructure and scientific research, are lawful and mutually beneficial.

Secretary of state calls for vigilance against aggressive claims for region’s resources.

China is looking to develop its polar strategies and increase its participation in global polar governance initiatives. This proactive stance will almost certainly clash with an American agenda, regardless of the administration.

For China the Arctic represents a largely blank geoeconomic canvas outside of the United States’ sphere of influence in which it can lay the foundation today for significant economic and geopolitical rewards in the future.