As EU dependency relationships adjust to changes occurring in geopolitics and world commerce, member states will explore deals with China and Russia at the expense of Washington’s preferred global order.

Trump’s America First policy is breaking down traditional barriers between East and West but breaking up the Western camp held together by shared values.

Trump’s antics have frayed the transatlantic alliance.

Bordered by a strong yet not very friendly Russia, these countries are bearing the blows from forces against globalization. While it might be a good choice for them to cooperate with the United States to build a new political and economic bloc, it’s not clear if there is room for the United States and Russia to compete in both energy and geopolitics here.

Europe is a long way from a common defense structure, but the need is growing. And, ironically, the unpopular Trump may prove more of a help than a hindrance.

Put simply, President Trump thinks that Europe and other allies have profited too much at the US’ expense and that the US should stop being such a sucker. That view will shape trans-Atlantic relations for the duration of this presidency.

It is not ideology that Beijing should count on, then, but incompetence. With TPP and the Paris Agreement, the Trump White House has been driven by rank opportunism – not in pursuit of a coherent set of policy goals, but rather to claim alpha status by the simplest means available.

As cooperation advances and with a shared position on climate change, China-EU relations are likely to maintain a momentum of steady growth, and cooperation will become increasingly important in this world of increased uncertainties about the US.

The Trump administration has been surprisingly brusque with demands that NATO allies meet their financial defense targets quickly. However, the US push for more military spending by European allies is less about European security than about freeing up more of Washington’s own resources to deal with issues in Asia.