US Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi’s arrival in Taiwan has incited a predictably strong response from China. Chinese warplanes have brushed up against the median line dividing the Taiwan Strait. The Chinese foreign ministry has warned of “serious consequences” as a result of Pelosi’s visit to the island. Chinese President Xi Jinping has told US President Joe Biden that “those who play with fire will perish by it.” And now, China has just announced a major military exercise with live-fire drills starting August 4 (just after Pelosi leaves Taiwan). The specter of military confrontation looms large.

At this year’s Aspen Security Forum (which I co-chair) in July, China’s ambassador to the United States, Qin Gang, appealed for better understanding of his country. But there was considerable debate among the assembled experts about China’s objectives. President Xi Jinping has announced China’s intention to outpace America in critical technologies such as artificial intelligence and synthetic biology by 2030, and many analysts predict that China’s GDP (measured at market exchange rates) will surpass that of the US early in the next decade. Is China seeking to displace the US as the world’s leading power by the centenary of communist rule in 2049?

If China and the United States could identify specific collaborative projects, break the bottlenecks of international supply chains and provide assistance to countries suffering from shortages from food to energy, normal relations could be restored.

The most recent direct discussion between U.S. President Joseph Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping was dominated by the Taiwan issue—which has become increasingly volatile and has returned to a central point of tension in the relationship. The telephone conversation allowed each president to restate their respective positions. Hopefully such an exchange will contribute to restraint, non-provocations, and stability between Beijing and Washington (although Taipei has its own agency and can cause instability).

The recent conversation offered an opportunity to manage bilateral relations from a strategic height. But because of domestic political strife in the U.S, there will likely be no letup in attempts to amplify “China threat” rhetoric.

The U.S. president has failed to reverse the harmful effects of Donald Trump’s sanctions. In fact, by continuing them, especially in the high-tech arena, America has unleashed a vigorous wave of energy in China to catch up, which will only lead to a loss of U.S. market share.

Will the G20 foreign ministers meeting bring China-U.S. ties back on track? Only with continuous improvements in the overall bilateral atmosphere can any consensus on cooperation — and the stability of the world — be effectively guaranteed.

Restore normal diplomatic exchanges, avoid war and strengthen economic ties — these are at the top of the list. It’s clear that trade is increasing, not decreasing, and we should continue developing scientific and technological exchanges. While competition is inevitable, war is not.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi met on July 9 at a G-20 Foreign Ministers Meeting in Bali, Indonesia. They held lengthy discussions—but all subsequent indications suggest that no substantive progress was made on each sides’ concerns. Nonetheless, some consolation can be taken that such an exchange occurred at all.

U.S. announcements and actions show some new approaches. In short, trade plays second fiddle to the White House’s strategic objectives — meaning that commercial interests will be sacrificed whenever Washington has need. Trade with China is viewed through a geopolitical lens.