What matters most for China is not whether the United States is in decline but how to understand a country that seeks to shape history while being no longer willing to bear the costs under the old rules. The United States today stands at a historic crossroads. To understand, one must begin with this fundamental reality.

The conduct of the Trump administration seems to show that traditional methods of keeping up appearances of cordial relations are no longer in the playbook, threatening U.S. hegemony by sabotaging its own image.

U.S. core national interests are defined by the new administration as safeguarding American strength, promoting power sharing to U.S. advantage and upholding a stable and open international system.

Large gaps between ambassador appointments can cause significant challenges for the next diplomat. As the next U.S. ambassador sent to Beijing is determined, they should look to past successes like James Lilley to understand how to engage with China.

China-U.S. relations will not continue down the path of the Trump regime, nor will they return to the ways of Obama. Instead, the relationship will enter a long-term phase of competitive co-existence characterized by mutual dependence, where common interests will present opportunities for collaboration.

Confrontation can come from lack of understanding and a difference of emphasis. At bottom, the Chinese want to set up principles before trying to resolve specific problems, while the Americans are eager to address specifics before improving the relationship.

While some anticipated a “reset” of U.S.-China relations with the new Biden administration, this does not seem to be the case. Early signs reveal considerable continuity with the previous Trump administration, although some changes in tactics can be anticipated.

What drove the U.S.-China rapprochement was a common desire to counter the strategic expansionism of the Soviet Union. And the Taiwan issue has since remained a constant irritant in the Sino-American relationship.

Despite intensifying acrimony, in the face of the most devastating economic crisis since the Great Depression, the two governments shelved differences, pursued cooperation, and led an international collective effort to stabilize the global financial system.