
Ted Galen Carpenter
Senior Fellow, Randolph Bourne Institute
Jul 04, 2025
Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party faces mounting political turmoil and scandal, weakening its ability to govern despite recent electoral wins. At the same time, doubts about U.S. security support under Trump leave Taiwan increasingly vulnerable amid rising tensions with China.
May 09, 2025
The U.S.-dominated international system is unraveling as major powers and Global South countries reject American pressure and assert their independence. Without a shift toward cooperation and respect for multipolarity, the U.S. risks becoming the target of a hostile global realignment rather than leading a stable new order.
Mar 20, 2025
Trump’s second-term foreign policy asserts U.S. hegemony in the Western Hemisphere while exploring a great power system based on spheres of influence. Its success hinges on defining these spheres—especially between the U.S. and China—without destabilizing East Asia.
Dec 20, 2024
Former Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen’s call for the U.S. to prioritize aid to Ukraine over Taiwan drew scrutiny, especially given rising cross-Strait tensions. While Tsai’s stance may momentarily shift Trump’s administration's attention in East Asia, it risks undermining his likely focus on ending the costly Ukraine conflict and confronting China more aggressively, with Taiwan as a key flashpoint.
Nov 08, 2024
It’s likely that Washington’s sterile China policy will persist regardless of which candidate wins the U.S. presidential elections, a situation that could be detrimental for the entire global community.
Oct 20, 2023
South Korea’s relationship with the U.S. as a protectorate has benefited Seoul strategically and economically. As tensions between China and the U.S. change the geopolitical climate of the region, South Korea may want to reevaluate the cost of a large U.S. military presence in their territory.
Jul 21, 2023
U.S. allies in East Asia are growing reluctant to support American military actions in the event of a conflict with China over Taiwan. These allies express concerns about the significant costs and risks associated with such a conflict, prompting them to advocate for restraint and inform Washington that it would have to confront any resulting conflict with China independently.
Jun 16, 2023
Several countries are making attempts to play the role of mediator to reduce dangerous tensions in various regions. The United States and its closest allies have greeted such efforts with undisguised or barely concealed hostility. Such an attitude not only is unhelpful and counterproductive, it will further isolate the West in the international community.
Apr 28, 2023
The Taiwan stand-off between the island, China, and the U.S. has been a simmering point of tension for decades, but with anti-China rhetoric ratcheting up in the West, and bolder American overtures towards Taiwan’s elected leaders, the potential for open conflict seems more and more likely.
Mar 06, 2023
The tattered U.S.-Russia relationship serves as one example of how far a “Cold War” can go when America escalates the situation. And by repeating these same steps with China today, the U.S. might be pushing two of its rivals together - the exact situation that Washington wants to avoid.