Britain, France and Germany have shifted their position, but with the suggestion of permanent denuclearization in exchange for permanent removal of sanctions, Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif may have kicked the ball back to the United States.

Saudi Arabia faces the prospect of becoming engulfed in in a war with Iran before it has fully extracted itself from the conflict in Yemen. Adjustments may follow, both diplomatic and domestic.

Strategically, politically and economically, Trump’s Iran policy is failing. Rather than force Iran into submission, Trump’s tactics have decreased Iran’s incentives to continue compliance with the nuclear deal. The era in which the United States could unilaterally push through its global agendas has come to an end.

President Trump must convince US allies of his positions toward Iran, or risk appearing as an erratic rogue actor while China and Iran seek to preserve a familiar status quo.

The recent US cyber-attack on Iran, in retaliation for the downing of its drone, raises new questions for the militarization of cyberspace: what are the norms governing cyber war? What are the implications for international cooperation on the global Internet? How can governments stop cyber-attacks from escalating in unpredictable ways? These matters greatly concern the US and China.

Starting in May, the White House hopes to extinguish Iran’s oil exports. However, any destabilization may prove counter-productive and cause long-term damage to the United States, the region, and global prospects.

The US withdrawal will distance it from its European allies and cause instability in the Middle East.

Formal withdrawal will enhance the image of the U.S. as a rule-breaker amongst the international community.

What is going on in Iran? Iran's protests reflect intense debate about new economic policies and priorities, particularly trade-offs between economic development, political consolidation and regional prestige. Escalation suggests U.S. efforts at regime change, as Iran is increasingly looking toward the east and development opportunities with China.