In the wake of rising U.S.-Iranian tension, there seems to be no clear path forward – and no clear winner. China stands to pluck the fruit of possible conflict in the region.

The recent tense, dangerous exchanges between the United States and Iran have revealed a great deal about US President Donald Trump’s management of his foreign policy. The main conclusion is that he doesn’t have one.

Hatred runs deep between the two countries. Thus, even if tensions recede, hostility is likely to remain, or even increase. In the end, it will benefit no one.

US President Donald Trump’s decision to order the assassination of Qassem Suleimani, Iran’s most powerful military commander, has raised the specter, albeit still distant, of all-out war between the United States and the Islamic Republic. There is only one winner in this situation: China.

The killing is a game-changer that will divert America’s attention from other priorities and force Trump to send more troops and weapons to the Middle East rather than withdrawing.

Protected by the vast Atlantic and Pacific oceans, the American homeland is a difficult target for direct retaliation. Iran and its proxies have easier marks around the world.

The Trump administration owes the world a clear explanation of how it justified an operation to kill Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani. So far, the strike seems legally dubious, if not flagrantly illegal.

Britain, France and Germany have shifted their position, but with the suggestion of permanent denuclearization in exchange for permanent removal of sanctions, Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif may have kicked the ball back to the United States.

Saudi Arabia faces the prospect of becoming engulfed in in a war with Iran before it has fully extracted itself from the conflict in Yemen. Adjustments may follow, both diplomatic and domestic.

Strategically, politically and economically, Trump’s Iran policy is failing. Rather than force Iran into submission, Trump’s tactics have decreased Iran’s incentives to continue compliance with the nuclear deal. The era in which the United States could unilaterally push through its global agendas has come to an end.