The U.S.-Iran conflict is increasing instability and straining U.S. resources while undermining Washington’s global credibility and leadership. At the same time, China is capitalizing on the situation by positioning itself as a neutral, stabilizing force and expanding its diplomatic influence at the United States’ expense.

The U.S.-Israel war on Iran has brought many lessons, foremost among them the shattering of the myth of unchallenged U.S. global might. More than a month into the U.S.-Israeli aggression, neither could the war change the regime in Iran – one of the illusions upon which U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu had waged the war – nor did Tehran concede to U.S. terms. Furthermore, on 2 March, Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz, through which around one-fifth of the world’s oil supplies pass. This energy lifeline remained blocked despite Trump’s repeated ultimatums and desperate calls to allies and partners to send forces to reopen it. This resistance was particularly notable as Iran has been under crippling sanctions for decades.

After one month of hostilities and no exit plans, the lethal costs of the U.S.-Israel joint war against Iran are global. How will the crisis reverberate against the backdrop of elevated U.S.-China relations?

The organization, which is historically tied to the United States is facing new questions. Donald Trump’s rhetoric has offended America’s European allies, and several of them do not want to get involved in an unpopular war. Unless resolved, such frictions will reduce NATO from a unity platform to a contest of priorities.

The pretext for Trump’s aggression against Iran, in partnership with Israel, is flimsy. As the saying goes, even a gentle rabbit may bite when cornered. The current war is, in some respects, an extreme manifestation of hegemony. And the whole world is paying the price.

The contradictions between the Trump administration’s state strategies and outward actions highlight its new geopolitical interventionist mindset. It claims to oppose prolonged wars, yet it does not reject military means to pursue economic interests. Washington has exposed its hegemonic nature.

The U.S.-Israel war with Iran is exposing widening reluctance among American allies to support the conflict, signaling potential erosion in U.S. global influence. At the same time, moves to bypass the U.S. dollar in oil trade, amid growing Chinese involvement, could challenge the petrodollar and reshape the global energy order.

The U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran have heightened regional instability while exposing China’s complex strategic dilemma, as Beijing seeks to safeguard critical energy imports and investments without becoming directly involved. Balancing ties with Iran, Gulf states, and the West, China is pursuing a cautious, deliberately ambiguous approach to protect its broader geopolitical and economic interests.

Four interconnected risks threaten Republican control of the U.S. Congress in November’s midterm elections. The vote will determine not only control of Congress but will also profoundly influence the future trajectory of American politics.

An era has reached its end. Washington now faces a stark choice: It must either pay the true diplomatic and political price of leadership or prepare to hand over the keys to a region it can neither afford nor effectively manage.