Given the overwhelming superiority of the American military, Washington could create the appearance of bringing Iran under control. Regardless how the conflict ultimately unfolds, however, the United States is unlikely ever to return to an era in which the Iran issue was manageable at a limited and predictable cost.

The conflict and its surrounding issues are characterized by a series of interconnected paradoxes, none of which comes with a simple, direct or rapid solution. The United States and Iran appear destined for a prolonged strategic contest.

What the U.S. president needs is not another, more intense round of airstrikes but a cease-fire formula that every side can sell at home.

The 2026 oil crisis revealed a transformed China: no longer just the world's largest oil importer and refiner, but a state actor deploying stockpiles, export controls, and strategic opacity to shape global energy markets on its own terms.

The Iran conflict has accelerated the emergence of a more multipolar global order, compelling U.S. allies such as the Philippines to reassess their foreign policy priorities. Facing mounting energy and economic pressures, Manila is exploring greater engagement with China while pursuing a more independent, interest-driven approach to great power competition.

Great powers have long made policy toward an imagined Iran—one that none of them had the patience to truly understand. Now, the great powers must rely on deep understanding, mutual respect and presence. But presence is precisely what Washington and Beijing lack.

The U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding is only a political commitment and carries no legally binding force. What truly matters is whether the two sides can conclude a formal peace agreement within the 60-day negotiating period. Three formidable hurdles stand in the way.

Iran is increasingly reorienting its foreign policy and economic strategy toward China and Eurasia, using expanded overland transport and energy links through Central and South Asia to reduce its vulnerability to sanctions and maritime disruption. This shift aligns with Beijing’s push for deeper trans-Eurasian connectivity and positions Iran as a more important partner in China's efforts to integrate the Eurasian continent through infrastructure, trade, and energy networks.

The U.S./Iran-linked energy crisis has shifted from a commodity shock to structural geopolitics, with Asia at the epicenter due to its dependence on imported oil and LNG. Global reverberations can no longer be avoided.