Thirteen countries in the Indo-Pacific region have joined the initiative, which indicates interest. But there are problems with the framework as presented that raise questions about its ability to succeed and endure.

Geopolitical risk, sanctions, and covid in China are redefining how we think about the future of global supply chains. Nations must start considering how to better secure their supply chains through regional trade partnerships, reshoring essential manufacturing capabilities, and sourcing goods from multiple nations and regions.

India and Pakistan share a deeply intertwined and embattled history. And now that India sees China entering the picture to back Pakistani development, the thought of two neighboring rivals growing closer has put India on notice.

The United States has recklessly dismissed China’s efforts, even though many factors beyond China’s control have influenced its ability to fulfill its side of the deal. The agreement should be implemented jointly and thoughtfully, not by finger-pointing.

A robust semiconductor supply chain without China is out of question, while complimentary China-U.S. cooperation would make the global supply chain both complete and resilient for years to come.

In The Economic Weapon: The Rise of Sanctions as a Tool of Modern War, historian Nicholas Mulder reminds us that even when Britain and Russia were savagely battling each other during the 1853-56 Crimean War, they continued to service their debts to each other. Likewise, when hedge funds launched predatory attacks on Asian currencies during the 1990s Asian financial crisis, they ultimately still played by the rules (even though their unethical behavior brought some East Asian countries’ economic progress to a halt).

Vietnam and India still have a long way to go to compete with China. Control of the pandemic, selective resumption of production and continued strengthening of its supply chains globally will keep China on top for some time.

After the 2008 global financial crisis, the world seemed ready to undertake meaningful reform of the international monetary system. But the promised structural changes never happened. And the recent spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank indicated that the current bout of global economic upheaval will similarly fail to spur transformation.

U.S. President Joe Biden often talks about leading the world. But if sanctions are what he meant, and if abusing the national security exception against WTO members is the means, the global economic system would be better off without America.

Economic sanctions against Russia have laid bare the limits of Western-controlled financial infrastructure, and may have exposed some misguided preconceptions about how the global economy is evaluated.