The outbreak has added new unknowns to the already uncertain phase-one trade agreement. If it leads to global recession and political unrest, the phase-one trade agreement may not mean much.

The novel coronavirus outbreak in the lead-up to the 2020 Chinese Spring Festival has inflicted great pain on tens of thousands of patients and their families, involving countless courageous Chinese citizens, who otherwise would have spent the holiday with their families and friends, in an unprecedented anti-virus war.

Cooperation is required if supply chain security is to be assured in the face of a worldwide health threat. No country can afford to be an outsider. Attempts by some to go it alone pose a huge challenge to the spirit needed to resolve the problem.

The world economy has clearly caught a cold. The outbreak of COVID-19 came at a particularly vulnerable point in the global business cycle. World output expanded by just 2.9% in 2019 – the slowest pace since the 2008-09 global financial crisis and just 0.4 percentage points above the 2.5% threshold typically associated with global recession.

It’s not a question of wanting to follow through but having the ability to do so, given the complex downward pressures brought by coronavirus epidemic.

Once a point farthest from any ocean on Earth, the BRI places Central Asia at the center of the world in an effort to economically integrate the Eurasian continent. While the motives and execution of BRI are questioned, the initiative is needed.

The trade deal has been signed, but recent factors, like the novel coronavirus, make it challenging for China to meet its trade requirements. Instead of moving forward, the US-China relationship has moved sideways.

In addition to the devastating human toll of the coronavirus outbreak, the economic damage of a manufacturing shutdown in China is likely to be profound.

While receptive to proposals that are in line with its economic reform and opening-up agenda, the country cannot be expected to embrace rule changes that undermine ore parts of its successful economic model.

If China adopts the right policies and works successfully with the international community, there is a high chance that its economic growth will remain stable over the medium term, even with the coronavirus.