President-elect Donald Trump’s announcement that the United States will quit the Trans-Pacific Partnership kills the stillborn deal. For the countries of Southeast Asia who joined this U.S. led pact, it is a moment of reflection over their policy choices, making them seek accommodation with a more certain China rather than a wavering U.S.

Strategic surprise and a cultivated image of irrationality is a classical strategy in a game of brinkmanship. One side highlights its willingness to “dance too close” to the cliff’s edge and maximize risk, leading its opposition into eventual retreat. Trumps’ discussion with Tsai Ing-wen must be seen through the prism or feigned irrationality. Trump, a studious businessman, may have considered the strategies of past presidents and found the “Madman” hypothesis compelling for his ultimate goal: to leverage Chinese adamancy over core national interests like the Taiwan issue into an agreement over trade and jobs – his existential political pledge.

Despite trade frictions and the recent fuss over contact with Taiwan’s leader, the future Trump administration is likely to promote the smooth development of Sino-U.S. relations in the years to come. Expansion of cooperation in areas where the two countries have common interests would be the first priority of both sides.

What does Donald Trump’s victory mean for Sino-American relations? With no experience in government, Trump is unique among all past American presidents. It also means the new president has no political background by which the Chinese can predict his behavior. Trump will come to the White House with a “clean slate” with respect to official “China policy.”

As the president-elect makes bold statements and takes symbolic actions relevant to US-Sino relations, perhaps a bit of folklore suggests how to think about wise policy actions.

The new US leader must truly realize that managing US-China relations in a constructive manner is essential for both countries and the world at large. While Trump plans a dial-back on some US commitments abroad, he cannot change all market rules at will -- and he’s barking up the wrong tree when he attributes most of America’s economic problems to China.

Southeast Asia is unlikely to receive the attention and focus it has under the Obama Administration. Despite this, members of Congress will maintain a focus in the region. Particularly, the legislative will take the lead given the country’s most ardent Myanmar watchers remain in Congress. Regional concerns continue to focus around human rights concerns and radicalization. Although the Obama “pivot” to Asia may be over, a continued relationship will remain.

Donald Trump’s words on the campaign trail suggest that Sino-US relations may fluctuate in the transition period. The balance of power between the two sides will continue to change but the importance and sensitivity of Sino-US relations will also increase.

For a country with nearly 1.4 billion people and a high dependence on foreign trade, the security of sea-lanes in the Western Pacific is first of all a matter of life and death for China. Obviously any attempt to seek hegemony by controlling those sea-lanes will only lead to regional turbulence, which in turn will endanger the security of China’s own international transport routes.

The US and major Western powers’ “political turn” brings both opportunities and challenges to China. The main challenge is the rise of trade and investment protectionism, resulting in increasing impediments to foreign trade and overseas investment. The main opportunity is that China may become the leader of international free trade earlier than anticipated, and China-led regional cooperation schemes, such as the RCEP, thus becomes more influential.