The Iran conflict has accelerated the emergence of a more multipolar global order, compelling U.S. allies such as the Philippines to reassess their foreign policy priorities. Facing mounting energy and economic pressures, Manila is exploring greater engagement with China while pursuing a more independent, interest-driven approach to great power competition.

The Gap Between Ambition and CapabilityThe United States remains committed to global primacy. That’s been a longstanding ambition that cuts across party l

When a small state assumes the protection of a bigger ally under any circumstance, conflicts erupt. Will the U.S. and China learn from history?

While the two countries’ maritime delimitation initiative appears on the surface to be all about maritime interests, it is in essence a strategic contest over the future regional order in East Asia, particularly the maritime order.

China's sanctions on Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro threaten to disrupt a recent improvement in bilateral relations, casting uncertainty over diplomatic dialogue, security cooperation, and economic ties. While tensions in the South China Sea persist, sustained dialogue and more measured diplomacy remain essential to managing disputes and keeping open the possibility of future resolution.

China and Canada are cautiously rebuilding relations based on shared economic and strategic interests, though deep-seated mistrust, domestic political constraints, and geopolitical pressure from the United States will continue to limit a broader rapprochement.

For China, a prerequisite is characterizing the overall kind of relationship the two sides have before specific issues can be discussed. The United States has often taken the opposite approach, starting with results in specific areas, then expand. Now the two sides seem to be nudging closer.

Europe is increasingly applying the same economic-security standards to U.S. firms that it once reserved for China, reflecting growing concerns over strategic dependence and American jurisdiction. However, while the EU has strengthened its ability to block foreign acquisitions, it still lacks the industrial capacity to replace them with competitive European alternatives.

When a small state assumes the protection of a bigger ally under any circumstance, conflicts erupt. Will the U.S. and China learn from history?

Global governance is increasingly constrained by three interconnected traps: a shrinking supply of international public goods as U.S. global leadership recedes, a growing crisis of public trust in governments and institutions, and the rising power of AI firms that outpaces effective regulation. Together, these trends weaken the ability of states and international institutions to address major transnational challenges, from security and public health to climate change and artificial intelligence.