Maximum pressure, transactional thinking and an emphasis on spheres of influence all define Donald Trump’s approach to diplomacy and give concrete form to his “America first” ideology. In a world undergoing turbulent change, the impact and destructive effect of this approach demand vigilance.

A stronger alliance between the U.S. and Japan poses significant challenges for China, but it’s important to recognize the internal and external constraints on Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s foreign policy. Actively identifying new areas of growth and nurturing the internal momentum of the relationship is essential.

China’s grand strategy is defined by a deliberate balance between integration into the global economic system and resistance to its Western-led constraints. It employs strategic ambiguity and selective engagement to expand influence, preserve flexibility, and avoid confrontation that could jeopardize its modernization.

In a significant recalibration, the Busan summit helped stabilize China-U.S. relations, which now appear unlikely to return to the past or fall into confrontation. Both sides will instead seek equilibrium through communication and prudent action.

The first in-person meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi in six years focused almost exclusively on trade and technology, resulting in a temporary rollback of tariffs and export restrictions but producing no new agreements or progress on broader security or geopolitical issues. The meeting largely served to stabilize U.S.-China relations and decrease tensions, with both leaders agreeing to reciprocal visits in 2026 for further discussions, effectively “kicking the can down the road” on deeper bilateral challenges.

China and India’s tense relationship appears to be thawing in the face of hostile U.S. actions, but a true de-escalation is nowhere near the grasp of either side.

The meeting was agreed upon to promote a cease-fire in the Ukraine conflict. But it was called off, underscoring the fragility of peace initiatives and suggesting that the war is likely to continue for a long time.

The U.S. president is attempting to create his own brand of diplomacy for the Western Hemisphere, but it’s hard to find the right words to describe it. While the United States hopes to reduce its burden for safeguarding the international order, what it wants in its own neighborhood is only expansion.

John Maynard Keynes’ The Economic Consequences of the Peace (1919) remains one of the most prescient critiques of postwar settlement in modern history. In it, Keynes warned that victory can hollow itself out when the victors lose their sense of humility. The punitive reparations imposed upon Germany after World War I, he argued, sowed the seeds for future instability by humiliating and impoverishing a nation that, once stripped of dignity and hope, would not long consent to the order imposed upon it. His insight was both economic as well as moral and political: sustainable peace requires magnanimity, not vengeance; it presupposes an architecture of inclusion, not one of exclusion. In today’s parlance, it rejects blocs aimed at those outside and seeks to ground relations in the idea of indivisible peace.

Donald Trump’s protectionist policies and strained diplomacy have damaged U.S. relations with key allies, including India, which has responded by seeking closer ties with China. This emerging Sino-Indian rapprochement marks a potential shift toward a more multipolar global order led by Asian powers.