Two classic conundrums are at play in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, both of which are making the problem worse and could lead to a new cold war. China’s approach provides a way out.

George Canning, who presided over the British foreign policy in the early nineteenth century, once famously said, “Europe's domain extends to the shores of the Atlantic, England’s begins there.”

Now that the Western powers have imposed sweeping economic and financial sanctions on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine, many are asking whether China’s non-participation will undermine their effectiveness. One should also ask whether the rich countries can do more for the poor people in many developing countries who are the collateral damage of the war and the sanctions.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been met with sanctions from the West, along with key regional economies in Asia. And Putin’s actions will have major repercussions on Russia’s place in the world, including its previously promising pivot towards Asia.

The crisis in Ukraine grows worse as fighting rages on in what is sure to be one of this decade’s defining episodes. Whatever the outcome is, the result will drastically shift the landscape of the international community.

Three main problems must be addressed in advance to reduce risk: a possible accident arising from a military encounter, dangerous actions by the United States that touch China’s red lines and provocative rhetoric by members of the U.S. Congress.

The Russia-Ukraine war was not warranted. Ukrainians despair for peace. Russia needs security. China offers development. But the U.S., NATO and the far-right Ukrainian paramilitaries seek something very different.

India is stepping up to seek out stronger relationships with Southeast Asian countries, showing that China is not the only nation in the Pacific region that can provide boons and benefits to friendly partners.

There is no need for China to overreact to the latest strategy report, but it needs to be prepared for pressure from the United States, which will likely focus on the Indo-Pacific region for decades to come.

With the Winter Olympics bringing the world’s eyes to China, it seems that the stage is set for a major year of confrontation between rising China and the U.S., competing with rival benefit packages to draw third-parties away from their opponent.